Exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern and southern regions of China, while isolated surplus anomalies will continue in western and northeastern areas of the country.
Exceptional deficits will continue in southeastern, northwestern, and western Russia, while northeastern and southeastern Russia will observe severe to extreme surpluses. Regions of Kazakhstan can expect moderate to extreme surpluses in northern and southeastern regions of the country.
Pockets of exceptional deficit will occur in southern regions of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman, as well as in isolated areas of Iran and Turkey. Small regions of southwestern Saudi Arabia and western Yemen will experience severe to extreme surplus.
Northwestern Mexico will continue to experience exceptional deficits, while central and southern areas of the country will observe severe to exceptional surpluses. Much of Central America can anticipate moderate to severe surplus.
The forecast through May 2023 indicates severe to extreme surpluses to continue throughout western states of the Continental U.S., including central to northeastern Nevada, central California, southeastern Idaho, northern Nebraska, and western Colorado. Surpluses in the southwestern states are expected to persist throughout November 2023 or longer.
Regions forecast to have significant water deficits for the 12-month period December 2022 through November 2023 include: Canada, the Middle East, Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and China. Areas of significant water surplus include: the western United States, Pakistan, Malaysia, central Africa, and southeastern Australia. This Watch List is based on ISciences Water Security Indicator Model v2 (WSIMv2) 7 March 2023.
The forecast through April 2023 anticipates intense surpluses in northeast China, the Shandong Peninsula, North China Plain, western Tibet, and southwestern Tibetan Plateau. Transitional conditions can be anticipated in western Tibet throughout South Xinjiang with surplus of varying intensity occurring further northeast of Tibet.
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