Europe: Deficits Forecast to Dominate Throughout Summer and Fall

In Europe, as we look back at the last three months and forward for the next nine we can see that deficits have and will dominate this period overall (12-month composite, first image below). 

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index for Mar 2015 through Feb 2016

The 3-month composites for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail (image below). Deficits observed in the spring may spread this summer over much of Europe with exceptional deficits evident along rivers. These deficits are expected to persist though diminish in severity throughout the fall, after which conditions may change to surpluses from December through February with the exception of Italy and eastern Spain.

WSIM Composite Water Anomaly Index 3-month, Mar 2015 through Feb 2016

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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