Europe: Surpluses persist in W & Central Europe, Nordic Countries

Europe: Surpluses persist in W & Central Europe, Nordic Countries

25 April 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending in December 2024 indicates that some intense surpluses in Continental Europe will dissipate, while some will continue in western and central Europe, the Nordic Countries, and the United Kingdom. Intense deficits are anticipated in southern portions of Continental Europe.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • France, in regions near the Aisne, Marne, and throughout areas near the town of Royan.

  • Western and central Austria, throughout the states of Tyrol and near the town of Schladming. These anomalies are expected to continue south into northern Italy, near the city of Bolzano.

  • Ukraine, in areas surrounding the Kremenchuts'ke Reservoir. 

  • Throughout the majority of Belgium, Netherlands, northern Germany, and Poland. 

  • Southeastern United Kingdom, appearing near the city of Stockholm and throughout areas bordering the Baltic Sea. Similar anomalies are expected in eastern coastal regions of Sweden, near the city of Hudiksvall. 

Severe to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Along most western coastal regions of Spain, beginning in Catalonia and spreading south into areas near the city of Almeria. 

  • Eastern and southern coastal regions of Italy, with the highest concentrations appearing in the Marche, Foggia, and Calabria regions. Similar deficits are expected to occur throughout Sicily and eastern to southern coastal regions of Sardinia. 

  • Romania, in regions north and northeast of Bucharest, as well as in northeastern Serbia. 

  • Greece, with the most intense anomalies appearing near Athens and Argolis.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through June 2024 indicates that exceptional surpluses will arise in southeastern portions of Norway, as well as central Sweden. Similar surpluses are expected to continue in western Austria and northern regions of Italy. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast throughout France, Spain, and Portugal. Extreme to exceptional deficits are anticipated in southern Italy, Sicily, northwestern Serbia, northwestern Romania, south-central Bulgaria, and throughout Moldova. Outside of Continental Europe, southwestern coastal regions of the United Kingdom can expect to experience extreme to exceptional surpluses. 

From July through September 2024, intense anomalies are expected to dissipate from most European countries. However, moderate to severe surpluses are expected to persist in Portugal, Spain, western to northern France, and southeastern United Kingdom. Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in coastal regions of western to central coastal regions of Norway, southern Italy, southern Greece, and southern Sardinia. Regions of southeastern Spain, near the city of Murcia, can expect similar deficits. 

The forecast for the final months – October 2024 through December 2024 – anticipates most areas of Europe to observe near normal to abnormal anomalies. Some moderate deficits are anticipated in southern Finland.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A recent report from Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organization detailed the need for urgent action for climate preservation in Europe. In the last year, one third of European rivers reached high flood thresholds, while 16 percent increased past the “severe” category. Rivers throughout Italy, Slovenia, and Greece specifically saw intense increases in levels last year, which ended with the Rhine and Danube river basins at or near record highs. Overall, Europe saw 7% more precipitation than average, which filled some rivers to dangerous levels and killed 44 Europeans in 2023. Another 44 deaths were reportedly due to wildfires, and storms caused 63 deaths. Nearly 1.6 million people were affected. Floods also caused the majority of economic losses, totalling 81%, according to the International Disaster Database.

The report also confirmed that it was the one of the warmest years on record in Europe. “2023 was the joint warmest or second warmest year on record depending on the dataset,” representatives from the WMO said. “Heat-related mortality has increased by around 30 per cent in the past 20 years and heat-related deaths are estimated to have increased in 94 per cent of the European regions monitored.” The report also indicated a definite increase in the number of adverse health effects caused by extreme weather and climate events.

Freixenet, a cava firm in the Spanish region of Catalonia, is expected to furlough 80% of its workers due to the region’s persistent drought. Drought in the area has persisted for more than three years and has significantly hindered the production of grapes. Freixenet said the temporary layoff would begin in May, affecting 615 of its 778 people employed in Catalonia. “The measure, which has been implemented in the interests of responsibility, aims to guarantee the operation of the business and to maintain employability in order to deal with external factors and the force majeure caused by the serious drought,” the company said.

The drought in Catalonia has reached such heights that the regional government is building a second desalination plant to generate potable water. The city of Barcelona already relies on the largest desalination plant in Europe for domestic use, which is compensating for three years of below average rainfall. The drought was declared a region wide emergency back in February. The plant is expected to be completed later this year. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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