East Asia: Deficits persist in NW, S China

East Asia: Deficits persist in NW, S China

24 June 2024

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast ending in February 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits will continue in northwestern and southern China, while surpluses will persist in east-central regions of the country.  

Extreme to exceptional deficits are expected in the following areas: 

  • Northwestern China, covering areas from western Inner Mongolia to eastern Xinjiang. 

  • Southern China, Yunnan

  • Western China, in western Tibet

  • Northeastern China, in the southern regions of the Jilin province. These deficits continue south into northern regions of North Korea. 

Extreme to exceptional surpluses are expected in the following regions:

  • East-central China, primarily in eastern Qinghai and small pockets of Tibet.  

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through August 2024 predicts that most regions of China will observe near-normal to abnormal deficits. Some pockets of exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern China, specifically in Ganzu and eastern Xinjiang. Intense surpluses are expected to mostly diminish throughout Tibet, but still remain in eastern Qinghai. 

From September through November 2024, China is expected to observe a continuance of near-normal to abnormal anomalies throughout most of the country. Some regions of Gansu and Xinjiang can expect small, isolated areas of deficit. 

The forecast for the final months – December 2024 through February 2025 – anticipates near-normal to abnormal anomalies to continue throughout the country. Pockets of deficit in Gansu and Xinjiang are expected to remain.

 Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Four deaths and over twelve missing people were reported after record breaking rains hit southern regions of China. Downpours which exceeded historical daily highs emerged in some areas of the Fujian province, affecting more than 66,000 people. As of June 19th, authorities stated that “communications and electricity infrastructure has not been fully restored,” as well as more warnings of potential landslides. Similar conditions occurred in nearby Meizhou within the Guangdong province, with landslides killing five people, trapping 13, and causing 15 others to go missing. 

Chinese authorities allocated the equivalent of about $126 million to flood and drought response work in southern and northern China as these regions continue to face extreme weather.

The figure includes 499 million yuan allocated to support flood control, relief efforts, and safety measures in several provinces, including Guangdong, Fujian, Guangxi, Guizhou, Yunnan, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei. Additionally, 417 million yuan is being provided to support Hebei, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi and Gansu in their water conservancy and drought relief efforts. On June 19th, China's State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters increased the emergency response level for Guangxi from Level IV to Level III, while responses in Guangdong and Fujian remain at Level IV.

Weeks of intense heat and little to no rainfall have farmers in the Shandong province desperate for water to irrigate their crops. Local farmer Zhang Junying resorted to collecting it from wastewater pipes in order to irrigate her corn crops. Zhang normally would collect water from a nearby river, but it was depleted nearly one month ago. "There is no water," Zhang said. "Look, people are going to other villages to collect water. Seeds are not sprouting without water." China is the world's top corn importer and produced a record 288.8 million metric tons last year. 

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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