Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Surplus continues throughout the Yucatan Peninsula

18 September 2024

THE BIG PICTURE

The forecast ending in May 2025 indicates that exceptional deficits in northwestern, central and southern Mexico will significantly diminish, as will exceptional deficits in Central America. Severe surpluses are expected to arise in east-central and southern Mexico.

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected in:

Northeastern Mexico, throughout the states of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon.
Southern Mexico, throughout the Yucatan Peninsula.
Southern Guatemala, across most southern coastal regions of the state and continuing east throughout El Salvador.
East-central Honduras, within the Olancho Department, as well as across western to southern Nicaragua and western Costa Rica.

Severe to exceptional deficits are anticipated in:

Northwestern Mexico, appearing in pockets across northwestern to southern Sonora and northwestern Chihuahua, near the city of Ciudad Juarez. These deficits also manifest in portions of northern Baja California and Baja California Sur.
Western coastal regions of Mexico, in states bordering the Pacific coast, particularly Colima and Guerrero.

The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The forecast through November 2024 indicates that most anomalies across Mexico and Central America will dissipate. Some portions of east-central Mexico near the municipality of Victoria will observe severe surpluses. Surpluses of severe to extreme intensity are expected to endure throughout the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated pockets of moderate to severe deficits are anticipated in northwestern Mexico, specifically in portions of eastern Sonora and western Chihuahua.

From December through February 2025, most regions of Mexico are expected to observe continued abnormal deficits, though some isolated pockets of east-central Mexico may experience continued moderate to severe surpluses and moderate deficits will persist in the northwest. Severe surpluses will persist in the Yucatan Peninsula.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2025, anticipates exceptional deficits to arise along western coastal regions of several Mexican states, as well as in southernmost regions of Baja California Sur. Severe surpluses are expected to continue in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In Cuba, over 600,000 residents are currently suffering from insufficient water supplies – more than 1 in 20 people of a population of 10 million. These issues compound for locals as the country already suffers from insufficient food and fuel supplies, as well as frequent electricity blackouts. "When they cut off power, we can't give water," said San Miguel de Padron resident Pedro Martino. Protests have emerged in some areas due to the country’s social and economic crisis, which is widely regarded as among the worst since Fidel Castro's 1959 revolution. These conditions have led to an unprecedented exodus of Cuban migrants over the past two years.

Cocoa crops, which have been grown in the Mexican state of Chiapas for thousands of years, are now experiencing a significant decline in crop yields due to drought. The typical harvest of 1,000 kg of cocoa pods per year diminished by nearly 50% in the past year, which some local farmers called “one of the worst harvests of their lifetime.” “Climate change has affected us a lot,” says local farmer Edilberto Morales. “On this plot, we used to harvest 1,000kg a year on average; the most drastic change was the last harvest in 2024 when we harvested 500kg.”

On September 1st, the body of a teenager was found in Juarez who was carried away in a flash flood that inundated streets a few days prior. Rescue teams retrieved the body after using pumps to lower water levels. Authorities reported that the quick, powerful deluge dropped 0.79 inches of rain in Juárez, where streets and drainage systems are often overloaded and easily flooded.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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