The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The forecast through August 2019 indicates moderate water deficits across northern Africa with large pockets of exceptional deficit in Libya, Egypt, and Sudan. The southern Sahara and the Sahel will be near-normal, and deficits in the Horn will downgrade. Mild deficits will cover much of southern Africa, punctuated by surpluses in East Africa and some pockets of intense deficit from Cameroon through Republic of the Congo, in southern Angola, northern Namibia, and western Botswana.
The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and across its midsection from the Gulf of Guinea to the Horn of Africa but will intensify across northern Africa with exceptional deficits expected. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast in the south, with intense deficits in Namibia. Areas of surpluses include Tanzania, northern Madagascar, the mouth of the Congo River, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Guinea.
The forecast through June indicates that water deficits will downgrade in the southern half of the continent and its midsection but will intensify across the north. In the Horn, deficits will downgrade but exceptional deficits are forecast for Somalia from the Jubba River past the Shabelle River. Intense deficits are expected in Zambia, Zimbabwe, southwestern Angola, and the Okavango Delta. Areas of surplus include western Tanzania and south-central Chad.
Exceptional water deficits will shrink and downgrade across North Africa and along the Red Sea but deficits will remain widespread and intense. Intense deficits are also forecast for western Ethiopia, southern Gabon, northwestern Botswana, central Zambia, and western Madagascar. Exceptional surpluses will persist in East Africa; extreme surpluses are forecast for the conjoined borders of Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Republic of the Congo; and surpluses of lesser intensity are forecast for westernmost Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Significant water deficits will continue to emerge across the north, though exceptional deficits will shrink. Deficits will diminish in central and southern Africa but remain intense in Gabon, southeastern DRC, Zambia, and west-central Madagascar. Southern Africa will downgrade to mild deficit. Surpluses will persist in southernmost Sudan, downgrade along the White Nile, increase in Kenya, and emerge in eastern Uganda, Ethiopia, and along the Jubba and Shabelle Rivers through southern Somalia. Exceptional surplus will persist in Tanzania.
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