The forecast for May 2024 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2024 through January 2025 in South America, Africa, and Canada. Areas expected to experience surplus include central to eastern Africa, northern Australia, Europe, and Southeast Asia.
The forecast anticipates exceptional deficits to continue in northern and northwestern African countries, as well as some central and southern countries. Intense surpluses are expected to emerge in areas throughout the Sahel.
The forecast indicates that intense surplus will occur in most northern and central regions of Australia, with exceptional deficits diminishing in portions of the country near its western coast. Exceptional deficits are expected to emerge in Tasmania, as well as in pockets across New Zealand.
The forecast indicates that exceptional deficits will mostly dissipate in northeastern China, but continue in northern, southern, and northwestern portions of the country. Exceptional surplus is expected to diminish in southwestern China, though moderate to severe surpluses may continue in eastern regions of the country.
The near-term forecast indicates a pattern of water anomalies much like the prior three months. Widespread surpluses will continue in northeastern Quebec, central Ontario, west of Lake Winnipeg in Manitoba, near Churchill Lake in Saskatchewan and into Alberta, the central border of Alberta and British Columbia, and southeastern BC. Deficit areas include: central Quebec and the Ontario/Quebec border; northwestern Ontario into central Manitoba; and southern Manitoba and southeastern Saskatchewan. After March, surpluses in Quebec and Ontario will transition to deficit.
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