The forecast for May 2025 expects significant water deficits for the 12-month period of February 2025 through January 2026 in northwestern and central Africa, the Middle East, Europe, Brazil, and northwestern to southeastern China. Areas expected to experience surplus include central and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, and portions of the Amazon rainforest.

In this installment of the Proof Point series, we detail current weather-related events affecting the Amazon rainforest and the historical accuracy of the Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) forecasts. 

Each month, ISciences reports on significant weather events occurring throughout the world and analyze how accurately our Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM) predicted them. In this series, we highlight the most severe global weather events which occurred during the month of April, and discuss the extent of their impact on the affected regions.

Exceptional deficits will remain in northwestern China, while regions of the Yangtze River Basin will observe an expansion of exceptional deficits across the region. 

Extreme to exceptional surpluses in India will resolve, leaving moderate surpluses in central and eastern portions of the country. Deficits are expected to spread in portions of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India. 

Extreme to exceptional surpluses in Maritime Southeast Asia will diminish, though some regions will observe continuing severe to extreme surpluses. Isolated regions in Mainland Southeast Asia will observe exceptional deficits. 

Widespread surpluses in southwestern Russia will mostly diminish. Exceptional deficits are expected in portions of the Urals, European Russia, northern coastal Russia, and in regions east of Lake Baikal.