Southeast Asia & Pacific
ISciences staff
Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of ...

Exceptional surpluses will persist in northern regions of Mainland Southeast Asia. Most areas of Maritime Southeast Asia will observe near-normal conditions. 

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: Pockets of surpluses persist throughout SE Asia
South Asia
ISciences staff
South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, ...

Severe to exceptional surpluses are expected to persist in several regions of India and emerge in Bangladesh. Some South Asian countries will observe isolated pockets of deficit. 

South Asia: Surplus continues throughout India, Bangladesh
Middle East
ISciences staff
Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue ...

Exceptional deficit anomalies will continue in southern regions of the Middle East, as well as in coastal regions of Turkey. Isolated pockets of exceptional deficit will also persist in Iran. Southwestern coastal areas of the Middle East will continue to observe moderate to severe surplus. 

Middle East: Exceptional deficits to continue in S countries
Central Asia & Russia
ISciences staff
Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near ...

Exceptional deficits will remain in areas near Lake Baikal and in much of western Russia. Northern and southeastern Kazakhstan will observe continuing surpluses of varying intensity, as will some Russian areas near the Lena River.

Central Asia & Russia: Deficits linger near Lake Baikal
Africa
ISciences staff
Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

Exceptional deficits will mostly resolve in northern, southern, and central countries, but will persist in the Horn of Africa. Surpluses along the Sahel are expected to remain. 

Africa: Surplus to continue along the Sahel

United States

United States: Numerous regionally significant water anomalies ahead

Water deficits may dominate the northern US from the Pacific Northwest eastward through Minnesota in the coming months, with surpluses in the Upper Mississippi. The forecast for California indicates a transition from deficits to surpluses by February. Surpluses may persist in the Central and Southern Plains and along Mississippi River tributaries. Extensive deficits are forecast March through May from the central Gulf Coast region northward through the Great Lakes region.

United States: Water deficits may persist in the Northwest, surpluses in Texas

  • Drought is forecast to persist in northern California, though some areas may have both water deficits and surpluses;
  • Exceptional drought may persist in the Pacific Northwest;
  • Severe water deficits are forecast for Minnesota;
  • Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for much of Texas, and along the Red River, the Arkansas River, the Rio Grande River, and in western Nebraska; surpluses are also forecast in the surrounding states of Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona;
  • A wide belt of moderate to exceptional surpluses is expected from the Central Plains eastward;
  • Southeast states are forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses.

United States: Water Forecast Indicates Deficits in the Northwest, Surpluses in the Central Plains

  • Exceptional drought will persist in northern California through the Pacific Northwest;
  • Southern California is forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses;
  • Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Louisiana;
  • A wide belt of moderate to exceptional surpluses is expected from the Central Plains eastward; and,
  • Southeast states are forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses.

United States: Regionally Significant Water Anomalies Forecast in Coming Months

The continental United States is forecast to experience regionally significant water anomalies through February 2016, both deficits and surpluses:

  • Exceptional drought is forecast to persist in northern California through the Pacific Northwest; 
  • Southern California is forecast to have characteristics of both water deficits and surpluses; 
  • Exceptional water surpluses are forecast for portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, New Mexico, and Louisiana; and,
  • Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for portions of the Northeast.

Western United States: Deficit impacts continue into Sept 2015

The prolonged drought in California has garnered significant political, public, and media attention. The WSIM Composite Surplus/Deficit Index for the next six months (April-Sept 2015), significant deficits will persist or intensify throughout much of the region, including Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, and Arizona.  The multi-year regional drought is already impacting agriculture, electricity generation, domestic supplies, and real-estate development.

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

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