Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits forecast for Yucatan & Jamaica

8 February 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending September 2019 indicates moderate to severe water deficits peppered throughout southern Mexico, deficits of similar intensity in southern Baja, and intense surpluses in a pocket of northern Coahuila south of the Rio Grande.

In Central America, moderate deficits are forecast in central Guatemala and in western Honduras along the Ulúa River. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in Nicaragua and across its borders into Honduras and Costa Rica. Intense deficits are forecast for western Panama and moderate deficits in Haiti.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March indicates that intense surpluses will persist in northern Coahuila, Mexico and along Sinaloa’s northern coast on the Gulf of California. Surpluses will persist in eastern Durango and along a diagonal from southern Durango through Mexico City, broken by a pocket of exceptional deficits in southern Puebla, and continuing into northern Oaxaca. Some moderate surpluses will persist near Aguascalientes and Puerto Vallarta.

Moderate to exceptional deficits are expected in the northern Yucatan Peninsula and deficits of varying intensity in scattered small pockets throughout the southern states. In the north, deficits along the Rio Grande in Chihuahua will moderate.

Conditions of both deficit and surplus (purple) are forecast for Central America as transitions occur, but a pocket of intense surplus will persist at the central border region of Honduras and Nicaragua. Exceptional deficits will increase in western Panama. In the Caribbean, deficits in Cuba and Hispaniola will downgrade considerably, becoming mild, but intense deficits are forecast to emerge in eastern Jamaica.

From April through June, severe to extreme deficits will emerge in southern Baja, Mexico and across the Gulf of California into northwestern Sonora. Moderate deficits will increase in southern Chihuahua, and moderate to severe deficits will emerge from southern Nayarit down the Pacific Coast. The Yucatan will transition from deficit to moderate surplus, surpluses in northern Coahuila will moderate, and surpluses elsewhere in Mexico will shrink. In Central America, some moderate deficits are forecast for Guatemala, some moderate surpluses from central Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica, and near-normal conditions elsewhere in the region. Areas of deficit in the Caribbean will return to normal.

The forecast for the final three months – July through September – indicates moderate to severe deficits in Baja, southern Mexico, and northern Central America.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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