East Asia: Intense water surpluses will persist in NE China

16 October 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through June 2020 indicates widespread, intense water surpluses in Northeast China including a significant block of exceptional surplus in Heilongjiang.

Surpluses will also dominate a vast expanse from western Tibet (Xizang) through Qinghai, Sichuan, southern Gansu, and Shaanxi, with exceptional anomalies in western Tibet, along the Yarlung (Brahmaputra) River, and in northern Sichuan. Anomalies will be severe along the Lower Reaches of the Yellow (Huang He) River and the eastern leg of the Ordos Loop. Surpluses are also forecast for Shanghai on the east coast, and in southern China with exceptional anomalies in northeastern Guangxi.

ISciences_East_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_12mo_panel.png

Exceptional deficits are expected in the Shandong Peninsula in the east, Yunnan in the south, and a vast expanse of Xinjiang Province in the west. Severe to extreme deficits are forecast for the Han River Basin, a northern tributary of the Yangtze, and somewhat more intense deficits in northern and western Inner Mongolia. Deficits are forecast for much of Mongolia as well, including a vast block of exceptional deficit.

On the Korean Peninsula, deficits are forecast for North Korea which will be exceptional near Pyongyang. In South Korea, severe deficits are expected surrounding Seoul. In Japan, surpluses are forecast for Kyushu and Shikoku, and severe to exceptional deficits in northernmost Honshu, moderating in Hokkaido.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through December indicates that surpluses will persist in Northeast China and a vast stretch from Tibet through the Yellow River Watershed, along the Ordos Loop, and the river’s lower path. Surpluses will be intense in Northeast China, in western Tibet and along the Yarlung River through Tibet, and at the base of the Ordos Loop through Shaanxi to Gansu. Surpluses in South and Southeast China will shrink and downgrade, leaving primarily moderate surpluses around Shanghai, and in Jiangxi and eastern Guangxi. Moderate deficits will emerge along the nation’s southeastern coast; deficits in Hubei and Henan will shrink and downgrade; and deficits in the Shandong Peninsula will downgrade but will be severe. A vast block of moderate to exceptional deficit will emerge in northern Inner Mongolia. In the west, exceptional deficits in eastern Xinjiang will downgrade.

ISciences_East_Asia_Composite_Adjusted_201907-202006_3mo_panel.png

Deficits will shrink on the Korean Peninsula, nearly disappearing from South Korea but leaving moderate to severe deficits in northeastern North Korea and south of Pyongyang. Moderate surpluses will emerge along South Korea’s southwestern coast and will persist across the Korea Strait in northern Kyushu, Japan. Intense deficits will persist in northern Honshu and severe deficits will emerge in Nagana Prefecture in the center of the island. Scattered deficits are forecast in Mongolia.

From January through March 2020, conditions in Southeast China and Japan will become nearly normal. Intense surpluses will persist in Northeast China and in western Tibet, and surpluses in the Yellow River Watershed will remain much the same as in the prior three-month forecast. Deficits will persist in northern Inner Mongolia, will increase on the Shandong Peninsula, and will shrink and downgrade in Xinjiang. Deficits in North Korea will persist, shrinking somewhat. Surpluses will increase in South Korea, emerging in the northeast.

The forecast for the final three months – April through June 2020 – indicates primarily moderate deficits in Mongolia and across China from Xinjiang through Inner Mongolia, and in northern Honshu, Japan. Surpluses are forecast for Northeast China and from western Tibet through parts of the Yellow River Watershed.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
[added 28 October 2019]
At mid-October, the water level at China’s largest freshwater lake, Poyang Lake in Jiangxi Province, measured well below the 60-year average, falling under the 10-meter mark. Lack of rainfall in the region pushed the lake into its drought season more than a month earlier than usual. The lake is fed by tributaries of the Yangtze, which the China Meteorological Administrations says has experienced drought conditions in its middle and lower reaches since September.

Below-average rainfall on the Korean Peninsula could reduce North Korea’s crop production to its lowest level in five years, threatening food supply to 40 percent of the population, according to the UN Food and Agricultural Organization. Typhoon Lingling, which passed through the country in early September, also impacted crop development.

Typhoon Hagis has left at least 74 dead in Japan. Landslides and flooding destroyed nearly 10,000 homes, left 133,000 people without water, and cut power to around a half million households at its peak. Over 200 rivers overflowed. Some areas received 40 percent of their annual rainfall in 24 hours.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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