Canada: Intense water deficits to persist in northern QC

20 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through July 2020 indicates a vast arc of exceptional water deficit in northern Quebec from south of Lake Mistassini curving northeast to the province’s eastern border. Large pockets of intense deficit are also forecast for eastern Quebec at the mouth of the St. Lawrence River, northeastern and northwestern Ontario, central and northeastern Manitoba, and central and northwestern Alberta.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_12mo_panel.png

Other areas forecast to experience intense deficits include central British Columbia at the intersection of the Fraser and Nechako Rivers, the northwestern region of the province from Prince Rupert to the Upper Skeena River, and a pocket in the Upper Assiniboine River Watershed in Saskatchewan.

A large block of extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast surrounding Fort McMurray, Alberta leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and east past Churchill Lake, Saskatchewan. Surpluses of similar intensity are forecast for the southwest corner of Ontario. Other areas of surplus include Manitoba’s northwest corner, northern British Columbia around Fort St. John leading west past Williston Lake, and in the province’s southern Columbia Mountains.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates nearly normal conditions for most major metropolitan areas with moderate surpluses around Montreal and deficits near Regina, Saskatchewan.

Exceptional deficits will persist in a vast portion of central and northern Quebec (QC) with deficits of varying intensity increasing from Lake Mistassini to Manicouagan Reservoir. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade somewhat in eastern continental Newfoundland and Labrador (NL); some pockets of deficit are forecast for Newfoundland. Deficits will persist with intensity along Ontario’s (ON) northeastern border surrounding Timmins and in the province’s northwest quadrant. Surpluses will persist in a large block of north-central ON, in the southwest, and around Lake Huron’s North Channel.

ISciences_Canada_Composite_Adjusted_201908-202007_3mo_panel.png

In the Prairie Provinces, exceptional deficits are forecast in a large block north of Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba (MB), and in the northeast along Hudson Bay. Intense surpluses will persist in MB’s northwestern corner and from north-central Alberta (AB) through Fort McMurray and into northern Saskatchewan (SK). Severe to exceptional deficits will persist in northwestern AB and in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in the center of the province. In British Columbia (BC), surpluses are forecast in the south and in the northeast surrounding Williston Lake. Deficits will shrink in central BC at the intersection of the Nechako and Fraser Rivers and in the north around Prince Rupert. Deficits along BC’s border with Yukon will downgrade somewhat as the extent of exceptional anomalies shrinks.

From February through April 2020, intense deficits will increase in central and northern QC, surpluses in ON will shrink considerably, deficits around Regina (AB) will disappear, and deficits in AB’s Upper Assiniboine River region will shrink and downgrade. Anomalies in the remaining areas of central and western Canada will remain much the same as in the prior three-month forecast though surpluses in BC’s southern Columbia Mountains will moderate and moderate surpluses will emerge near AB’s southern border.

The forecast for the final three months – May through July 2020 – indicates both deficit and surplus anomalies will shrink overall, particularly the extent of exceptional deficit in QC. Nearly normal conditions are forecast across southern regions of the provinces.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
A strike by railway workers in Quebec is producing a ripple effect reaching the province’s farming community who are facing potential crop losses. The strike has created a shortage of propane coming into the province which farmers depend on to dry crops before storage. Harvesting has already been delayed by a combination of weather effects - a late, wet spring followed by a dry summer - and without propane to quickly dry grain crops they’ll likely rot or freeze when siloed. Dozens of farmers caravanned their tractors into Montreal in protest. The railway union is blaming the propane shortage on its employer who, they claim, has sufficient backup staff to operate trains during the strike.

The Bank of Canada is developing an initiative to stress-test financial markets under future climate scenarios. The plan will focus on the economic impact of more frequent and severe weather, and consequences such as an increase in property insurance claims.

A report by some of Canada’s top water scientists indicates that the country’s future is not freshwater-secure despite reputed abundance. A warming climate means that more precipitation falls as rain instead of snow, running off the land rather than being absorbed. Experts also point to lake eutrophication from increased algael growth under warmer conditions and over-drawn watersheds like the South Saskatchewan River that waters southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.

The National Building Code of Canada has commissioned an expert to advise on including flood-proofing in the national guidelines. Current guidelines include provisions for defense from wind, snow, rain, and earthquakes but not floods. Thousands of Canadians were affected by flooding this year on the Ottawa River, the St. John River in New Brunswick, and the Chilcotin River in British Columbia, and the federate government expects the frequency and intensity of flooding to increase.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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