Middle East: Water surplus will persist in Syria, Iraq, & Iran

Middle East: Water surplus will persist in Syria, Iraq, & Iran

20 November 2019

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending July 2020 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity covering most of the Arabian Peninsula including exceptional anomalies in Qatar and United Arab Emirates.

Deficits of varying intensity are also forecast for southern Iraq, intense surpluses in northern Iraq, and conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) west of the Euphrates as transitions occur. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are also forecast for northern Syria. Western and southern Turkey can expect deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional, and deficits of similar range are forecast for Georgia. Moderate deficits are expected in central Iran with more intense anomalies along the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in Iran along the central Caspian Sea Coast, trailing south nearly to the Persian Gulf. Exceptional surpluses are forecast farther east along the Caspian and along the border with Turkmenistan. Primarily moderate surpluses are forecast in the center of southeastern Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2020 indicates the re-emergence of exceptional surpluses in northern Syria and moderate surpluses in western Iraq. Moderate to exceptional surplus anomalies will persist from northern Iraq and along its border with Iran through a vast expanse of western Iran reaching past the Iran-Turkmen border. Moderate surpluses are forecast for southeastern Iran. Deficits will shrink and downgrade considerably, leaving severe to extreme anomalies in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Province and Georgia, and primarily moderate anomalies in parts of northern and western Turkey.

From February through April 2020, nearly normal water conditions will return to much of the region as anomalies shrink and downgrade. Exceptional surpluses will persist, however, in north-central Syria, a pocket in northern Iraq around Mosul, and around the southeastern coast of the Caspian Sea in northern Iran. Deficits in Riyadh Region, Saudi Arabia will moderate; exceptional deficits will emerge in the southwestern corner of Oman.

In the final quarter – May through July 2020 – deficits will increase in the region with widespread deficits in Saudi Arabia and the bulk of central Iran. Exceptional surpluses will persist surrounding Mosul, Iraq.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Weeks of heavy rainfall have produced flood conditions in many of Iran’s northern provinces including Golestan, Mazanderan, Semnan, North Khorasan, South Khorasan and Razavi Khorasan. Flooding closed roads and schools, interrupted water supply to some communities, and left at least two people dead.

Kuwait’s minister of the interior has resigned amid accusations of abuse of power and questions from parliament about flood damages sustained in the country after unusually heavy rain.

Below average rainfall has left reservoirs serving Istanbul, Turkey with merely 100 days of water, according to the Istanbul Water and Sewage Administration. Dams around the city were at less than 40 percent capacity as of mid-November, forcing authorities to consider planned water rationing within six months if normal rainfall doesn’t resume.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.