Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook January 2020

2 January 2020

OVERVIEW
Much warmer than normal temperatures are indicated in the January 2020 Outlook for Northern and Eastern Europe, Russia, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia. Areas with a forecast of drier than normal conditions include the Balkans while regions around the Bay of Bengal are expected to be wetter than the norm.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
In Europe, moderately drier than normal conditions are forecast for many southern European nations but dry anomalies will be more intense in the Balkans and western Turkey, and will include severe to extreme anomalies as far north as south-central Ukraine. Conversely, wetter than normal conditions are expected in the northern United Kingdom, Norway, northern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and across an expanse of Russia from European Russia through the Central Siberian Plateau past the Lena River. Wet anomalies will be extreme in coastal Norway, northwestern Sweden, and the Lower Lena River Watershed. Kazakhstan will be moderately wetter than normal in the west and north, and drier in the east and southeast.

Dry anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in Mongolia, Xinjiang in western China, eastern Inner Mongolia, and eastern regions of Jilin and Heilongjiang in Northeast China. Wet anomalies are predicted for Tibet, the Middle Yellow River (Huang He) region, the Lower and Middle Yangtze River regions, and the Pearl River Basin (Zhujiang) in the south. Anomalies will be especially intense in eastern Guizhou. Japan will be drier than the norm with exceptional anomalies in the north.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Wetter than normal conditions will prevail in many regions of South Asia including Pakistan, northern and eastern India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional along the Bay of Bengal in India reaching well into the center of the nation, and in Assam in the northeast. Extreme anomalies are forecast throughout much of Bangladesh.

Nearby in Myanmar, wet anomalies are also forecast for much of the country’s northern two-thirds. Conditions in Southeast Asia and the Pacific are expected to be relatively normal with some moderate wet anomalies in pockets of Indonesia.

In Australia, primarily moderate wet anomalies are forecast in the bulk of the Outback region in Western Australia and in western South Australia. Dry anomalies are forecast in the nation’s north in the eastern portion of Top End, Northern Territory and in eastern Cape York Peninsula.

The Middle East can expect relatively normal precipitation with drier areas in northern Saudi Arabia and moderately wetter conditions in southwestern Yemen.

Eastern Africa will be wetter than normal with moderate to extreme anomalies in southwestern Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, and southern Somalia. Other regions with wet anomalies include central Malawi, northern Mozambique, coastal Republic of the Congo into northern Angola, and the central border of Libya and Egypt. Some moderate dry anomalies are forecast for Morocco, Liberia, Cameroon, and Central African Republic.

In South America, moderately drier than normal conditions are forecast in the northern regions of Colombia and Venezuela and into Guyana, and a small pocket in Brazil’s northern state of Roraima. Dry anomalies are also expected to trace a path through the Cordillera Oriental Mountains in Peru. A few wetter than normal patches on the continent include the Southern Patagonia Icefields.

Conditions will be relatively normal overall in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. Some wet anomalies are forecast for Guatemala, Chiapas (Mexico), and farther north in central Zacatecas (Mexico). Northern Baja will be drier than the norm.

The U.S. Southeast and part of the Gulf Coast region will be moderately wetter than normal. Conditions in California, Nevada, and southwestern Oregon will be moderately to severely drier than normal. In Canada, primarily moderate wet anomalies are forecast in the western provinces of British Columbia and northwestern Alberta and into the territories to the north.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
A vast swath of red and orange on the Temperature Forecast map below calls attention to warmer than normal temperatures predicted for the United Kingdom, Northern and Eastern Europe, Kazakhstan, and much of Russia. Anomalies will be exceptional in Denmark, southern Sweden, Kazakhstan, and Russia from southern Siberia past Lake Baikal. Warm anomalies in the extreme range are forecast for the United Kingdom, the Baltics, Finland, Eastern Europe bleeding into parts of Central Europe, and a band across northern Italy from Milan to Trieste.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on t… — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in Mongolia with exceptional anomalies along its southern border in the Gobi Desert, and extreme to exceptional anomalies in Northeast China and the Taklamakan Desert in the northwest. Temperatures are expected to be considerably warmer than normal in Beijing with extreme anomalies anticipated. Severe warm anomalies will reach south through the Shandong Peninsula. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in the southeast from Shanghai through Hainan and including Taiwan. Conditions in Yunnan will be extremely warmer than the norm. Some moderate cool anomalies are forecast in pockets of Tibet.

Warmer than normal temperatures are also forecast for the Korean Peninsula, primarily moderate in the north but severe in the south. Japan will be warmer than normal, particularly Honshu where severe to extreme anomalies are expected.

Much of Southeast Asia will experience intensely warmer than normal temperatures with exceptional anomalies in Thailand and Laos. Similar conditions are forecast for Malaysian Borneo, much of Indonesia, and the Philippines.

In South Asia, cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, and the eastern Gangetic Plain in India with extreme anomalies in eastern Uttar Pradesh. Southern India, however, will be warmer than normal with severe to extreme anomalies reaching through the nation’s southern third and throughout Sri Lanka.

Eastern and Northern Australia will be warmer than normal with exceptional anomalies in Top End, Northern Territory; severe to exceptional anomalies in Queensland; and severe anomalies in eastern New South Wales.

Temperatures in the Middle East are expected to be relatively normal though exceptionally hotter temperatures are forecast in Yemen.

Exceptionally hotter temperatures will reach into the Horn of Africa in Somalia, southern Eritrea, and northern and eastern Ethiopia. Western Ethiopia will be much cooler than normal. Cool anomalies of varying intensity are expected in central Africa including South Sudan, Uganda, eastern Central African Republic, and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Intense warm anomalies are forecast in Liberia and in coastal areas along the northern Gulf of Guinea. Warm anomalies are also forecast in nations along the eastern Gulf of Guinea and pockets of southern Africa including southern Mozambique and South Africa. Warm anomalies will be intense in northern Madagascar.

In the West, Central America and the Caribbean will be warmer than normal with intense anomalies in northern Central America. Intense warm anomalies will reach through the Yucatan Peninsula and into southern Mexico, and are also forecast for Nayarit State along the central Pacific coast. Relatively normal temperatures are forecast for the U.S. and Canada with some moderate warm anomalies in New York State, Iowa, and eastern Montana.

In South America, intense warm anomalies are expected in easternmost Brazil leading south through Minas Gerais to Rio de Janeiro, and will include exceptional anomalies in Pernambuco, Alagoas, and Sergipe in the east. Warm anomalies will also be intense in western Bolivia. Primarily severe warm anomalies are forecast along a path through the Andes from western Colombia through central Chile.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released January 2, 2020 which includes forecasts for January 2020 through September 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued December 25 through December 31, 2019.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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