Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus in Sonora, MX & Central America

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus in Sonora, MX & Central America

30 March 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending November indicates deficits ranging from moderate to extreme in Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas.

Deficits are also forecast for much of Baja, though surpluses are expected in the Peninsula’s northwestern and southern extremes. Surpluses are also forecast across the Gulf of California in Sonora and will reach exceptional intensity in the northeastern region of the state.

Central Mexico will see mild to moderate deficits.

In Central America, moderate to severe surpluses are forecast for southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and pockets in Panama, northern Honduras, and southeastern Guatemala. Surpluses are also expected in central and western Cuba, along Haiti’s western coast, and in the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora, Mexico with moderate surpluses along the lower stretches of the Yaqui River as it reaches the Gulf of California and in some areas south of Sonora. Surpluses will persist in the northwest corner of Baja, in Nuevo Leon near Monterrey, along the central Pacific Coast, and around Mexico City. Deficits will increase in Chihuahua, Coahuila, and northern Durango, and small pockets of deficit are forecast for southern Baja and central Mexico. Deficits, primarily moderate, will increase in the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.

In Central America, surpluses are forecast for Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and Costa Rica. Deficits will nearly disappear in the Caribbean and surpluses are forecast in central Cuba, near Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and in the central Bahamas.

From June through August, nearly normal water conditions are expected in many parts of the region. However, intense surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora with conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur. Moderate deficits are forecast for southeastern Chihuahua, pockets of central Coahuila, and central Baja. Moderate surpluses are forecast in a few pockets in Central America including northern Honduras and Panama. Surpluses are also forecast for central Cuba and near Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

The forecast for the final three months – September through November – indicates a forecast similar to that of the prior three months - nearly normal water conditions in much of the region with surpluses in Sonora and pockets of Central America and the Caribbean, and some pockets of moderate deficit including persistent deficits in southeastern Chihuahua.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Residents of Costa Rica’s Hatillo neighborhood in San Jose blocked traffic at one of the capital’s major intersections in early March, protesting lack of water availability for proper COVID-19 hygiene protocol amid chronic rationing. Daily water rationing between 11am to 8pm was instituted a month earlier by the federal water authority, but residents say their water flows a mere three hours a day, from 3am to 6am, and that they can’t afford alcohol gel sanitizers to combat the virulent coronavirus circling the globe. Currently in its dry season of January through April, the country faces lower water levels in its reservoirs and consumption has increased due to the pandemic and hoarding according to an official at the nation’s water authority.

Facing chronic water shortages, the Mexican border city of Mexicali has rejected plans for a $1.4 billion dollar US-owned brewery in the region. One regional water expert estimated that, at peak production, the brewery would have siphoned off 25 percent of the region’s water reserves. The issue will likely end up in court in view of protections provided by Mexico’s free trade deal with the US.

Laguna de Metztitlán, a lake in the central Mexican state of Hidalgo, has lost 95 percent of its water due to drought. The lake is a major source of irrigation water for the region’s farming community and its loss translates into the loss of beans and corn. Fishermen have also been affected: thousands of pounds of dead fish littered the dry lake bed at the end of February. Assuming the water will return, the state ministry of agriculture has promised to restock the lake with 200,000 tilapia and carp.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags

Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

For more information contact info@isciences.com.

Copyright 2022 ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List is the property of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. It is protected by U.S. copyright laws and may not be reproduced in any way without the written permission of ISCIENCES, L.L.C. The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of information on ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Web pages, including information derived from Water Security Indicators Model (WSIM). This information may include forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent ISCIENCES, L.L.C.’s assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information and using the highest professional standards. Actual results may differ from those projected. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. ISCIENCES, L.L.C. provides such information "as is," and disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will ISCIENCES, L.L.C. be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.