Africa: Water deficits to retreat from Horn

27 April 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December indicates intense water deficits across northern Africa including widespread exceptional anomalies. Exceptional deficits are also forecast for Equatorial Guinea through western Gabon, a pocket in southwestern Namibia, southern Mozambique, and Madagascar’s central west coast.

Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202001-202012_12mo_twitter.png

A wide band of primarily moderate surplus is expected just south of the Sahel from Burkina Faso stretching east and becoming widespread in southern Sudan and South Sudan and reaching into Ethiopia and Eritrea. Pockets of intense deficit are forecast in Somaliland and in southern Somalia extending west from Mogadishu.

Intense surpluses are forecast in East Africa and in northern Madagascar where conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast as transitions occur. Areas of surplus elsewhere include westernmost DRC, and South Africa from southern Orange Free State into Eastern Cape. Moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast in western South Africa. Deficits will be nearly as intense in eastern South Africa from the Lesotho border reaching through Swaziland, and in northern Zambia. Deficits of lesser intensity are expected in pockets elsewhere including southern Zambia, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and northern and southeastern Angola.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through June indicates that deficits will generally downgrade in western North Africa; increase and be exceptional across northern Niger and eastern North Africa, transitioning from scattered surpluses; and retreat from the Horn of Africa. Though normal conditions will return to many areas in the vast band formed by the Sahel and south of the Sahel, pockets of surplus are also forecast and anomalies will be exceptional in northern Nigeria and south-central Chad. Surpluses in East Africa will shrink and downgrade but will remain widespread in Tanzania. Conditions in southern Africa include deficits in: northern Madagascar, Swaziland through South Africa to Lesotho, and west-central Madagascar where anomalies will be intense. Anomalies elsewhere include deficits in Equatorial Guinea and western Gabon, and surpluses in eastern Gabon, west-central Angola, and west of Lesotho.

Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202001-202012_3mo_twitter.png

From July through September, deficits of varying intensity will persist across North Africa, shrinking somewhat. A band of surplus will persist south of the Sahel, shrinking and downgrading in northern Nigeria and southern Chad, but increasing greatly in southern Sudan, South Sudan, and much of Ethiopia; and, surpluses will emerge in Eritrea. Surpluses will persist in East Africa, intensifying in western Kenya and northern Uganda and emerging in north-central DRC. Some moderate deficits will emerge in West Africa from Guinea through Ghana and deficits will intensify in Equatorial Guinea and western Gabon, becoming exceptional in pockets. Mild deficits will increase in southern African nations.

The forecast for the final quarter – October through December – indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade in East Africa and will persist in southern Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, western Eritrea, and pockets forming a band south of the Sahel. Deficits across North Africa will shrink.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in mid-April triggered flooding that caused extensive damage in several eastern provinces of Democratic Republic of the Congo. In Maniema Province, 10,000 homes were damaged when the River Congo breached its banks, and in South Kivu Province the death toll reached 40 when the Mulongwe River overflowed.

Landslides claimed at least twelve lives in western Kenya after flash flooding in April. The region had not yet recovered from flood damage in late 2019 that killed dozens.

Drought in Morocco has cut the nation’s cereal output by 42 percent, as reported by the ministry of agriculture. The ministry has begun subsidized distribution of barley feed to aid livestock producers.

As in many other places around the world, water shortages have hampered South Africa’s efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic using recommended hygiene protocols such as frequent hand-washing. In drought-stricken Eastern Cape, visiting health workers who arrived with neither water nor sanitizer to distribute were met with dogs and pelted with stones by angry residents. The water and sanitation minister ordered a scale-up of water tank deliveries to the region, a rural area with many elderly people who may be particularly susceptible to the virus.

Water levels at the Karibe Dam on the Zambezi River between Zambia and Zimbabwe have risen somewht in the last two months, reaching nearly 24 percent usable storage on 20 April, up from 10 percent around the same time in February.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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