Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus will persist in Sonora MX

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus will persist in Sonora MX

29 April 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending December indicates deficits of varying intensity in Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Anomalies will be especially intense in northern Nuevo Leon and northern Tamaulipas.

Intense deficits are also forecast in central Baja California, though surpluses are expected in the Peninsula’s northwestern and southern extremes. Surpluses are also forecast across the Gulf of California in northeastern Sonora and will reach exceptional intensity.

In Central America, moderate surpluses are forecast along Honduras’ Caribbean coast and in southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama. Surpluses are also expected in central Cuba, around Port-au-Prince Bay in Haiti, and in the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates that severe to exceptional surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora, Mexico and across the border into Chihuahua, downgrading as they trail south. Deficits will persist in southwestern Chihuahua and surpluses will increase around Monterrey in Nuevo Leon. On the Baja Peninsula, surpluses will persist in the northwest corner and moderate deficits will emerge in the Peninsula’s southern half. Conditions in the Yucatan will become nearly normal, downgrading from exceptional deficit.

In Central America, surpluses will shrink, though moderate to severe anomalies are forecast along Honduras’ Caribbean Coast and in southern Nicaragua, northern Costa Rica, and pockets of western Panama. Deficits will nearly disappear in the Caribbean. Surpluses are forecast in central Cuba, around Port-au-Prince Bay in Haiti, and in the central Bahamas.

From July through September, mild deficits or normal water conditions are expected in many parts of the region. Surpluses in northwestern Mexico will shrink but persist, and moderate deficits will persist in southeastern Chihuahua. Moderate deficits will emerge in northern Baja while normal conditions return to the southern half of the Peninsula. Some areas of relatively mild deficit are expected in Central America and moderate surpluses will shrink but persist in coastal Honduras, southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama. In the Caribbean, surpluses will persist around Port-au-Prince Bay and central Cuba, and some small pockets of moderate deficit will persist in westernmost points of Hispaniola.

The forecast for the final three months – October through December – indicates a forecast similar to that of the prior three months though surpluses in Sonora will shrink.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
By early April, Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula had experienced 38 days without rain in a drought described as the region’s worst in three decades. Dry conditions left the area vulnerable to wildfires and by the end of the month firefighters from three agencies were battling a blaze in the forest along the border of Yucatan State and Quintana Roo. Agricultural burning has been suspended due to the drought and to stay-at-home protocols to limit the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

The combination of drought and high temperatures have decimated the Yucatan’s honeybee population. Lacking adequate precipitation, plants the bees depend on for food have languished. Honey production is an important contributor to the Peninsula’s economy and one prominent beekeeper estimates that 50 percent of the region’s bees have abandoned their hives.

March 2020 was the driest month in Cuba since 1961. At the end of the month, over 90 percent of Cuban territory was affected by drought. By late April Cuba’s water reservoirs had dropped to below 50 percent of storage capacity and the country’s largest dam, located in the province of Sancti Spiritus, registered only 11 percent. On April 11, the nation endured its highest temperature ever recorded: 102.7 degrees Fahrenheit (39.3 degrees Celsius) in the town of Veguitas.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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