Middle East: Intense water deficits forecast for Saudi Arabia & UAE

Middle East: Intense water deficits forecast for Saudi Arabia & UAE

28 April 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending December indicates widespread, intense water deficits in much of Saudi Arabia and in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar. Transitional conditions are also forecast in some regions (pink/purple). Deficits of lesser intensity are expected in southwestern Yemen, and exceptional surpluses along the central border of Yemen and Saudi Arabia.

In the Levant, exceptional surpluses are forecast for central and northern Syria and around Mosul in northern Iraq. Transitional conditions are forecast west of the Euphrates River in Iraq and surpluses of varying intensity are forecast east of the Tigris River and in Israel, West Bank, Gaza, and pockets of southern Jordan.

Turkey can expect surpluses leading from Syria and in pockets elsewhere, including along the eastern Mediterranean. Exceptional deficits are forecast in Eastern Thrace (European Turkey) and moderate deficits in the west and north-central region of the country. Deficits are also forecast in Georgia north of Tbilisi.

In Iran, surpluses are expected around the Caspian Sea Coast, including Tehran and extending along the Turkmen border; along the border with Iraq reaching well into western Iran; in southern provinces near the Persian Gulf, along with small pockets of deficit on the coast; and in northern Baluchstan Province. Surplus anomalies will be exceptional along the eastern coast of the Caspian and the Turkmen border and in the south from the Strait of Hormuz leading into Kerman Province. Moderate to extreme deficits are forecast for central Iran in Esfahan and Yazd Provinces.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through June indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink, though many areas of surplus will persist. Surpluses are expected in Israel and Gaza, central and eastern Turkey, central and northern Syria, northern and eastern Iraq, western Iran, around Iran’s Caspian Sea Coast, and southern Iranian provinces near the Persian Gulf. Anomalies will be exceptional in central and northern Syria, surrounding Mosul in Iraq, along Iran’s eastern Caspian Coast, and near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran leading well into Kerman Province.

Exceptional deficits will increase in Saudi Arabia, encompassing much of the central extent. Some areas of surplus along the southern border will transition to intense deficit, as will conditions near and in the United Arab Emirates. Moderate deficits are forecast for western Yemen, Qatar and Kuwait. Deficits elsewhere include intense anomalies in southern Iraq, north-central Turkey, and near Tbilisi in Georgia.

From July through September, surpluses will continue to shrink, though anomalies are forecast for central Turkey, northeastern Iraq, northwestern Iran and the central Caspian Coast, and southern Iran east of the Strait of Hormuz. Surpluses will be exceptional around Mosul, and near the Strait of Hormuz. Many areas of prior surplus will begin to transition, with conditions of both surplus and deficit indicated (pink/purple). Deficits will remain intense in much of central Saudi Arabia but will moderate in United Arab Emirates, and moderate deficits will persist in Qatar and Kuwait. Deficits will remain fairly intense in southern Iraq, and will intensify and spread in central Iran, reaching into the nation’s northeast. Deficits are expected to emerge in Lebanon, western Syria, southern Israel, and Jordan.

In the final quarter – October through December – deficits will shrink and downgrade, especially in Saudi Arabia. Surpluses will persist in pockets of northwestern Iran and central Turkey and will re-emerge in central Syria.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
Iran’s wetlands are beginning to show signs of life again after years of dryness. Above-average rainfall has flooded 40 percent of the famed Hamoun International Wetlands in the southeast, and has prompted the return of flamingos to the Gavkhuni International Wetland in the center of the nation. Both are recognized as Wetlands of International Importance under the United Nations Ramsar Convention. The European Union and the United Nations Development Programme have allocated €10 million (USD $10.8 million) to support rehabilitation of the Hamouns.

Heavy rainfall struck Yemen in late April, flooding the streets of Aden where a state of emergency was declared and claiming the lives of at least 10 people.

Ongoing conflicts in various parts of the Middle East including Yemen have made it harder to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic as it reaches war-torn areas with damaged water and health infrastructure and refugee camps housing internally displaced populations in cramped quarters.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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