Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water deficits will downgrade in Thailand

21 April 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through December indicates extreme to exceptional water deficits in western Thailand and across the border into Myanmar. Severe deficits are forecast for the southeastern portion of mainland Thailand, and moderate to severe deficits in peninsular Thailand. Northernmost Laos can also expect some deficits.

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Elsewhere, deficits are forecast for peninsular Malaysia, pockets along Sumatra’s northeast coast, Mindanao (Philippines), and around Papua New Guinea’s southern coast. Anomalies will be exceptional along the western shore of the Gulf of Papua.

In Southeast Asia, a few pockets of surplus are forecast in western Myanmar and in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, North Central Coast, and along the border with China.

Areas with a forecast of surplus include Indonesian Borneo; pockets along Sumatra’s west coast; Java, Flores Island, and other pockets in small Indonesian islands; the eastern half of New Guinea’s Bird’s Head Peninsula (Doberai Peninsula) and isolated pockets elsewhere in New Guinea; and the northeastern tip of Luzon (Philippines). Surpluses will be exceptional in western Java including Jakarta, western Flores Island, and the eastern half of the Bird’s Head Peninsula in New Guinea.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates that deficits will shrink and downgrade in the region, particularly in Thailand where exceptional deficits will disappear from the east and will moderate in the west. In Cambodia, a pocket of extreme deficit will persist north of Tonlé Sap. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in the Malay Peninsula, pockets along Sumatra’s northeast coast, the northeastern corner of Borneo, and Mindanao, Philippines. In Papua New Guinea, deficits are forecast along the southern coast and will be exceptional around the Gulf of Papua. Moderate deficits are expected in the northeast corner of the nation reaching across the border into Indonesian territory. The Indonesian island of Ternate can expect deficits reaching extreme intensity.

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Surpluses are forecast in Vietnam near the Chinese border, in the North Central Coast, and in Dak Lak Province in the Central Highlands. Anomalies will be exceptional in the North Central Coast. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Indonesian Borneo, persisting in the west. Intense surpluses will persist in western Java though exceptional anomalies will shrink somewhat. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include eastern Java; Sumatra’s southwest coast; Flores Island and scattered pockets throughout the remainder of Indonesia; and northeastern Luzon (Philippines).

From July through September, water conditions in much of Southeast Asia and the Philippines will normalize, though some pockets of deficit will persist in western Thailand and will emerge with intensity in western Cambodia. Exceptional deficits will emerge on the island of Timor, and neighboring islands will begin to transition. Surpluses, primarily moderate, are forecast for southwestern Sumatra and western Java, pockets of Borneo, Sulawesi’s northeastern arm, Maluku Island, and many regions in New Guinea, though some small pockets of deficit will persist along Papua New Guinea’s southern coast.

The forecast for the final months – October through December – indicates nearly normal conditions in Southeast Asia though some moderate surpluses may re-emerge in Vietnam’s Central Highlands. Moderate surpluses are also forecast for many parts of Indonesia and New Guinea.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
The usable water in Thailand’s reservoirs and dams dropped to critical levels at the beginning of April, below 30 percent, as drought continues to affect the nation. Emergency financial support will be funneled from the federal government to 23 provinces that have been declared as drought disaster areas. The country’s Agricultural Disaster Monitoring and Resolution Centre calculates that 1.62 million rai (640,497 acres) of agricultural land was damaged by drought between September 2019 and February 2020.

Farmers in Cambodia’s Persat and Battambang Provinces have been battling water shortages for four months, prompting migration out of the region as farmers seek income. The drought prevented a customary second planting of rice, a ban which the government enforced, and some areas haven’t had rain since November. Drinking water has also been in short supply.

Malaysian officials are concerned that low water levels in six key dams in peninsular Malaysia will inhibit effective hygiene practices recommended to tackle the spread of COVID-19. Lack of rainfall for the past two months is also creating water shortages in 18 villages in the Tuaran District of Bornean Malaysia. District officials have dispatched twice weekly water trucks to three of the affected villages.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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