Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook May 2020

5 May 2020

OVERVIEW
The May Outlook indicates exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures in a number of regions but anomalies will be particularly widespread across Siberia and eastern Russia reaching the Bering Strait. Precipitation conditions are expected to be relatively normal overall, though Bhutan will be much drier than normal with anomalies reaching into India’s Far Northeast.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Dry anomalies will cover most of Bhutan and will be extreme to exceptional. Anomalies of similar intensity are forecast nearby in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, India. Western India will be moderately drier than the norm in Maharastra, Goa, northern Karnataka, and some pockets of Gujarat, while wetter than normal conditions ranging from moderate to severe are forecast along the northern Bay of Bengal in West Bengal and throughout Bangladesh. Moderate wet anomalies are expected in northern Pakistan and into Punjab and Haryana, India. Much of Afghanistan will also be wetter than normal, with severe anomalies forming a triangle from Kabul to Mazar-e-Sharif to Herat.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on… — Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Generally moderate dry anomalies are forecast in Southeast Asia including parts of Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam, but anomalies could be severe in northern Laos. The northern Philippines will see moderate dry anomalies while moderate wet anomalies are forecast for pockets of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea.

Precipitation will be relatively normal in Australia with the possibility of moderately wetter than normal conditions near Darwin in the north.

In China, eastern Tibet (Xizang) and western Yunnan will be drier than normal with some extreme anomalies in Tibet. Moderate to extreme wet anomalies are forecast for northern Tibet and moderately wetter than normal conditions in western Qinghai.

Russia’s Arctic east will be drier than normal from the Eastern Siberian Sea down through northern Kamchatka on the Sea of Okhotsk. Anomalies will be intense in some regions.

Much of Europe can expect relatively normal precipitation though moderate wet anomalies are forecast for France, Belgium, Netherlands, southwestern Germany, and southwestern Finland. Some mild to moderate dry anomalies are forecast for Italy and the western Balkan region.

In Africa, wetter than normal conditions are expected in a pattern from central Eritrea through central Ethiopia and western Kenya, into central Tanzania and northern Zambia. Anomalies will be extreme in pockets of Ethiopia and Kenya. Wet anomalies are also expected in westernmost Democratic Republic of the Congo and nearby regions in Angola, Republic of the Congo, as well as eastern Gabon. South-central Uganda will be much drier than normal. Moderate dry anomalies are forecast for Guinea and pockets in nearby nations of West Africa, and along a path through Northern Cape, South Africa following the Orange River.

In the Middle East, some pockets of drier than normal conditions are expected in Saudi Arabia’s northern bulk, and wet anomalies in southwestern Yemen and along the Persian Gulf in Iran and some Iranian provinces in the north and east.

The U.S. can expect moderate dry anomalies in much of California south of San Francisco, and reaching well into Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. Alaska, too, could see some moderate dry anomalies around Fairbanks and in the Seward Peninsula.

Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula will be somewhat wetter than normal. The Dominican Republic will be somewhat drier.

Wet anomalies are forecast for central Panama, northwestern Colombia, Guyana, and Amapá and northern Pará in Brazil. Moderately drier than normal conditions are expected in south-central Chile, southwestern Argentina, west-central Bolivia, northern Maranhão in Brazil, and in pockets of Peru.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Much of the vast expanse of Russia east of the Ural Mountains will be much warmer than normal with exceptional anomalies throughout the Western Siberian Plain and in the Arctic east. Temperature anomalies ranging from extreme to exceptional are expected to reach through much of Mongolia, Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, the Lower and Middle Yellow and Yangtze River Watersheds, and the Korean Peninsula. Moderate to extreme warm anomalies are forecast in southern China with exceptional anomalies in Hainan and nearby regions of the mainland. Southeast China will be moderately warmer than normal as will Taiwan. Severe to extreme warm anomalies are forecast in Japan, especially Honshu.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on t… — Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Warm anomalies will also be intense - primarily extreme to exceptional - throughout much of Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Papua New Guinea.

Australia, too, will see warmer than normal temperatures in its extreme north, including exceptional anomalies in Arnhem Land (the eastern portion of Top End, Northern Territory); and, in the tip of the Cape York Peninsula in Far North Queensland. South Island, New Zealand can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies, while anomalies in New Caledonia will be extreme.

Western India will be exceptionally hotter than normal with anomalies downgrading somewhat as they reach central India. Warm anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the nation’s southern tip and in Sri Lanka. Moderately cooler than normal temperatures are forecast for the eastern Gangetic Plain, Nepal, and Bangladesh, but Far Northeast India can expect severe warm anomalies. Southern Pakistan will be warmer than normal with severe anomalies around Karachi and Hyderabad, while moderate cool anomalies are forecast for north-central Pakistan. Central Afghanistan will also be moderately cooler than normal.

Turkmenistan will be moderately warmer as will central Uzbekistan and pockets of eastern Kazakhstan. Some areas with cool anomalies are forecast along Kyrgyzstan’s northern border.

In the Middle East, warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for Saudi Arabia and will be exceptional near and into the United Arab Emirates. Severe warm anomalies are forecast for much of Yemen. Western Turkey will be moderately warmer than the norm as will pockets of western Syria and western and southern Iraq. Northeastern Iraq will be somewhat cooler than normal. Intense warm anomalies are forecast for Iran’s southern coast along the Gulf of Oman.

Temperatures in Northern Europe and Northern European Russia are expected to be relatively normal, but Central, Mediterranean, and much of Eastern Europe can expect warm anomalies that will be extreme in Sicily, Sardinia, Corsica, and Slovenia; and severe in many areas including France, Switzerland, Italy, and Romania.

The forecast for West Africa indicates much hotter than normal temperatures, including exceptional anomalies in the western Sahel and around the Gulf of Guinea. Other areas of Africa with a forecast of intense warm anomalies include: the Chad-Sudan border; Eritrea; the Omo and Genale River regions of Ethiopia; Central Africa Republic and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); coastal Somalia north of Mogadishu; and a pocket around and north of Nairobi, Kenya. Severe warm anomalies are forecast for Rwanda, Burundi, and Madagascar. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are expected in southern Africa, primarily South Africa. Regions with a forecast of cooler than normal conditions include south-central DRC; eastern Uganda into northwestern Kenya and southern Ethiopia; and a pocket in South Sudan.

In the Western Hemisphere, Alaska will be warmer than normal, particularly in the north where anomalies will be severe to extreme. In Canada, moderate warm anomalies are forecast in a broad path in the west through Yukon and Northwest Territories and British Columbia and Alberta, with large pockets of severe anomalies. Warm anomalies are also expected in Nunavut in the north and from eastern Quebec into Labrador.

Much of the southwest quadrant of the U.S. will be warmer than normal with extreme anomalies in Arizona. Other areas of the U.S. with a forecast of warm anomalies include the intersecting border region of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho; and southern Florida where anomalies will be exceptional from Miami south and into the Keys.

In Mexico, exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are forecast in the west from, roughly, Guadalajara past Acapulco. Much of northern Mexico will be warmer than normal, with primarily severe anomalies. Warm anomalies are also forecast throughout Central America and the Caribbean and will include exceptional anomalies in Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola.

Warmer than normal temperatures will prevail across most of northern South America with exceptional anomalies tracing the Andes from Colombia through the Atacama Desert in northern Chile. Across the northern arc of the continent, warm anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in western and southern Venezuela, and of varying intensity from Guyana through French Guiana. Severe warm anomalies are forecast for the northern portion of the Amazon Basin in Brasil but a pocket of exceptional intensity is expected in southeastern Pará with a path of extreme anomalies leading into Maranhão. Anomalies will also be extreme in Amapá and northern Amazonas. Warm anomalies are also forecast in Brazil’s eastern tip. Moderately cooler than normal conditions are expected in a pocket of eastern Bolivia reaching into Brazil. At the southern tip of the continent, temperatures will be warmer than normal in southern Patagonia.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released May 3, 2020 which includes forecasts for May 2020 through January 2021 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued April 24 through April 30, 2020.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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