Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits persist in Chihuahua

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits persist in Chichuahua

27 May 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending January 2021 indicates deficits of varying intensity in Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Anomalies will be exceptional in Coahuila.

Intense deficits are also forecast in central Baja California and moderate deficits farther south on the Baja Peninsula. Surpluses are expected in the Peninsula’s northwestern extreme and also on the mainland in northeastern Sonora where anomalies will reach exceptional intensity.

Generally mild deficits are expected across a band of central Mexico, and moderate to severe deficits in Yucatan and Quintana Roo States in the Yucatan Peninsula.

In Central America, surpluses will be primarily moderate along Honduras’ Caribbean coast, in southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and western Panama. Surpluses are also expected in central Cuba, Port-au-Prince Bay in Haiti, and the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through July indicates that water anomalies will shrink and downgrade in Mexico with conditions normalizing in the northeast, south, and Yucatan, and generally mild anomalies expected in most other regions of the country. However, a pocket of intense deficit will persist in southeastern Chihuahua and moderate deficits will emerge in western Sonora and much of the Baja Peninsula. Surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora, maintaining severe to exceptional intensity, but will retreat directly south. Surpluses in Baja’s northwestern corner will moderate.

In Central America, surpluses will shrink, leaving moderate to severe anomalies along Honduras’ Caribbean Coast and in southern Nicaragua and pockets of Costa Rica. Mild surpluses in western Panama will intensify, becoming moderate to severe. Deficits will nearly disappear in Cuba, and moderate deficits will emerge in Dominican Republic.

From August through October, mild deficits or normal water conditions are expected in most of Mexico, reaching south through northern Nicaragua. Surpluses will persist in northeastern Sonora and deficits in Chihuahua will moderate. Moderate deficits are forecast for the Baja Peninsula’s northern two-thirds. Moderate surpluses are expected from southern Nicaragua through western Panama and surpluses will persist in central Cuba and Port-au-Prince Bay.

The forecast for the final three months – November through January – indicates that intense deficits will re-emerge from Chihuahua into Coahuila and surpluses in Central America will shrink.

(It should be noted that forecast skill declines with longer lead times.)

IMPACTS
The Calakmul Biosphere Reserve at the base of the Yucatan Peninsula in the Mexican rain forest is facing drought conditions that have persisted since 2000. Limited rainfall in the region has reduced local water sources by at least 50 percent, threatening 1,600 plant varieties, 86 different mammals, residents of 40 nearby towns, and the region’s tourism industry.

Numerous wildfires have been burning in western Mexico’s Guerrero State since the beginning of May, with over 1,000 fire-fighters deployed. Though common, the practice of burning to clear agricultural land is discouraged by the National Forestry Commission noting that the dry season is expected to be strong.

Heavy rainfall in Panama triggered landslides in early May, leaving two people dead in Panama City and roadways flooded.

Flash flooding in central Cuba forced evacuations at the end of May with some regions receiving 120 mm (4.7 inches) of rain in just a few hours. Several rivers overflowed in Sancti Spíritus Province where around 30 homes were damaged. Flooding and landslides were also reported in Villa Clara and Cienfuegos Provinces.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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