Canada: Water deficits to retreat from S. SK

Canada: Water deficits to retreat from S. SK

23 June 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through February 2021 indicates vast areas of exceptional water deficit in Quebec west of Lake Mistassini and in a wide path on the eastern border. Intense deficits are also forecast for western Labrador, southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick into Quebec’s Gaspé Peninsula, and a column along Ontario’s northeastern border. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for most of Southern Ontario and the western half of Northern Ontario.

Deficits will be exceptional in other areas of the country including the southwest corner of Hudson Bay, a belt across central Manitoba north of Lake Winnipeg reaching into Ontario, the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed in central Alberta and the province’s northwest corner.

A large block of extreme to exceptional surplus is forecast surrounding Churchill Lake in northern Saskatchewan leading north well past Lake Athabasca and west past Fort McMurray, Alberta. Severe surpluses are expected around Fort St. John in northern British Columbia, and exceptional surpluses in the southern Columbia Mountains.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August for Canada’s most populated areas indicates nearly normal water conditions for Québec City and Vancouver; surpluses near Toronto, Edmonton, and Calgary; and deficits near Montreal, Ottawa, and Winnipeg.

Intense deficits will shrink in Newfoundland, increase in Quebec’s Gaspé Peninsula, and downgrade slightly in New Brunswick (NB). Exceptional deficits will persist in vast blocks of Quebec (QC) west of Lake Mistassini and along the eastern border into Labrador. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast for much of Southern Ontario (ON) except near Toronto where moderate surpluses are expected, and deficits are also forecast in much of the western half of Northern Ontario. Exceptional deficits will persist along the Ontario-Quebec border corridor, the southwest corner of Hudson Bay, and a belt across central Manitoba (MB). Deficits in the southern portion of the Prairie Provinces will nearly disappear. Intense deficits in central and northern regions of Alberta (AB) and British Columbia (BC) will shrink somewhat. Deficits will persist on Vancouver Island. Surpluses will persist from northern Saskatchewan (SK) into AB, along the central border of AB and BC, and will increase in southeastern BC and southwestern AB.

From September through November, deficits will decrease overall, particularly in Quebec, but will remain exceptional in a few areas including west of Lake Mistassini, north of Lake Winnipeg and along Hudson Bay in MB, and a few pockets in AB. Moderate deficits are forecast in Southern Ontario and surpluses near Toronto will nearly disappear. Surpluses will remain widespread in northern SK but will downgrade in southeastern BC. Conditions on Vancouver Island will normalize.

The forecast for the final three months – December through February – indicates conditions similar to the September through November forecast. Conditions in Southern Ontario will normalize, transitioning from moderate deficit.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The hailstorm that hit southern Alberta in June elicited descriptions that challenged belief - hail the size of grapefruits and golf balls. Rain in the Calgary area pummeled wheat, canola, and barley fields while hail attacked crops at speeds of 80 to 100 km/h (50 to 62 m/hr) according to one meteorologist. Calgary’s mayor estimates that damages in the city will reach $1 billion (US $740 million). The storm damaged tens of thousands of homes, smashed windshields, and flooded streets and buildings, submerging cars.

Rising water levels on the Thompson River near Kamloops in southern British Columbia prompted city officials to close popular riverside walkways and boat launches at the end of May. Creeks overflowed in the Okanagan region, closing a park in Cherryville, and flood watches were issued for several rivers in the area.

Recent hot, dry weather throughout much of Quebec has provided ideal conditions for forest fires. Several fires are burning in provincial forest areas but the largest, north of Lac Saint-Jean, has encompassed 72,000 hectares. A popular area for hunting and fishing, the region has many vacation cottages, over 60 of which have already been destroyed. Fire crews from Quebec have been joined by units from Ontario, Manitoba, and Alberta to contain the Lac Saint-Jean fire and several other fires. In addition to 290 firefighters, 17 water bomber planes and 40 helicopters have been deployed. So far this year, Quebec has had twice the number of wildfires as the average for the past 10 years.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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