Middle East: Water surpluses to persist in Iran

24 June 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending February 2021 indicates widespread persistent water surpluses from Syria into eastern Turkey, and through northern Iraq and many regions of Iran.

ISciences_Middle_East_Composite_Adjusted_202003-202102_12mo_twitter.png

Anomalies in Iran will encompass most of the western region of the country, reaching east around the Caspian Coast and along the Turkmen border, and south to the Gulf of Oman. Surpluses are also forecast in northern Sistan and Baluchestan Province in the southeast. Areas with a forecast of exceptional surplus include northern Syria; around Mosul, Iraq; northeastern Iran; and southern Iran reaching inland from the Strait of Hormuz. Surpluses are also forecast for Israel and Gaza.

The forecast for Iraq west of the Euphrates indicates moderate deficits in the northwest and south and mixed conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) as transitions occur.

On the Arabian Peninsula, a patchwork of deficits or transitional conditions is forecast for much of Saudi Arabia with severe deficits in Riyadh Province and exceptional deficits in the nation’s southeast corner. Deficits will be also be intense in the eastern half of United Arab Emirates. Surpluses are expected in southwestern Saudi Arabia and much of central Yemen though intense deficits are expected in southwestern Yemen near the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Turkey can expect moderate to severe deficits in the west, north-central region, and in Eastern Thrace (European Turkey). Intense deficits are forecast in Georgia north of Tbilisi.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates that widespread surpluses in the region will shrink on the Arabian Peninsula as transitions occur but persist in Iran and northern Iraq.

ISciences_Middle_East_Composite_Adjusted_202003-202102_3mo_twitter.png

In Iran, exceptional surpluses will persist near the Turkmen border. Severe to extreme anomalies are expected along Iran’s Caspian Sea coast and from Lake Urmia leading south through Fars Province, though areas along the Persian Gulf will be in transition. Surpluses are also forecast in Kerman and Sistan and Baluchestan Provinces; deficits will emerge in the center of the nation. In Iraq, persistent surpluses are forecast east of the Euphrates River and will be exceptional around Mosul. Exceptional surplus anomalies are also forecast for northern Syria along with transitional conditions. Turkey can expect moderate surpluses near the Syrian border and some deficits along the central Black Sea coast and in the southwest. Much of the Arabian Peninsula will be in transition with some intense deficits in Riyadh Province in central Saudi Arabia and in southern Oman.

From September through November, surpluses will continue to shrink but intense anomalies will re-emerge in greater extent in northern Syria. Moderate surpluses will persist in Turkey bordering Syria and in pockets of northwestern Iran, and will emerge in Israel. Deficits in western Turkey will increase while those on the central Black Sea coast shrink. Other areas of prior surplus in Iran will be in transition; deficits are forecast in the nation’s east-central region and in the south. Intense deficits are forecast in much of southern Saudi Arabia with some areas in transition. Deficits in southern Oman will moderate.

In the final quarter – December through February – deficits will shrink and downgrade, persisting in southern Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Surpluses will persist in northern Syria and around Mosul, will increase in western Iraq, and will re-emerge in northeastern Iran, near the Strait of Hormuz, and across Saudi Arabia’s southern border.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In late May, protesters in Iran’s oil-rich southwestern province of Khuzestan gathered in front of the local governor’s office then blocked a highway with burning tires to call attention to the persistent shortage of drinking water in the region after ten days without tanker deliveries. Local police and state security responded by firing rubber bullets and tear gas. Water shortages were also reported in Khorasan Razavi Province with concern heightened by COVID-19 hygiene protocols.

In southeastern Iran, a nearly 50-year old agreement between Iran and Afghanistan splits equally the water flowing from the Helmand River, though disputes over withdrawals are common. The river originates in the Hindu Kush mountains of northern Afghanistan and as the climate changes one expert at the Stockholm International Water Institute says that decreasing levels on the Helmand will further exacerbate tensions between the two nations.

Flooding in the United Arab Emirates claimed four lives after torrential rainfall struck the Emirate of Sharjah in late May, inundating roads and washing away vehicles.

Spinoff from Cyclone Nisarga left 16 people dead in southeastern Yemen after heavy rainfall produced flooding in early June.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

Subscribe to our monthly Water Watch List

Search blog categories

Search blog tags