Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook July 2020

2 July 2020

OVERVIEW
The July Outlook includes exceptionally warmer than normal temperatures in many areas, notably a vast block of eastern North America including the Great Lakes States, the U.S. Northeast, and well into Canada. Central Europe will be considerably drier than normal while wetter conditions are expected in the Balkans.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Drier than normal conditions are expected in Central and parts of Northern Europe. Moderate precipitation deficits will be widespread from England through northern France, Central Europe, Poland, the Baltics, and southern Scandinavia. Extreme precipitation deficits are expected in northern Germany, and severe deficits in southern Sweden and central England. Southern European Russia will see moderate precipitation deficits. Precipitation surpluses are forecast for Italy and the Balkans, and will be extreme in central Greece.

Moderate to severe surpluses will extend through western Turkey and are also forecast for northern Iraq. Elsewhere in the Middle East, moderate precipitation deficits are expected in northeastern Iran, and some small pockets of surplus and of deficit will pepper the southern portion of the Arabian Peninsula.

Precipitation surpluses are forecast in a band across central Africa from eastern Gabon through Republic of the Congo, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, and into western Kenya. Other areas with a forecast of surplus precipitation include Cameroon, northern Angola, northeastern Zambia into southern Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Somaliland, and Somalia. Severe deficits are predicted for northwestern Ethiopia north of Lake Tana, while some pockets of surplus are expected elsewhere.

In Central Asia, moderate precipitation deficits are forecast in western Kazakhstan and pockets of western Turkmenistan. Surplus precipitation is expected in northern Kazakhstan and eastern Kyrgyzstan.

Surpluses are also forecast for the Hindu Kush region of northeastern Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan. Surpluses will be intense. Moderate precipitation surpluses are expected in southern Pakistan. Surplus precipitation is also forecast in western India’s Gujarat State, reaching into central India. Surpluses could be severe in southern Gujarat. India’s Far North can expect intense precipitation deficits that will reach into western Tibet (Xizang), China, and deficits in eastern Nepal will cross the border into southern Tibet. Moderate precipitation surpluses are expected in northeastern Tibet, western China, and in Guizhou, Chongqing, Jiangxi, and Zhejiang in central and eastern China.

The Korean Peninsula can expect surplus precipitation, more widespread and severe in the north. Moderate to severe precipitation surpluses are forecast from northern Honshu into Hokkaido, Japan.

Moderate surpluses are forecast for pockets in central Cambodia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Moderate deficits are predicted for western Thailand. Relatively normal precipitation is expected in Australia and New Zealand.

In North America, Quebec and southern Ontario in Canada will be somewhat drier than normal, while the central provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan will be wetter. These precipitation surpluses will extend well into the northern U.S. through Montana, North Dakota, and pockets of South Dakota. Tennessee will be moderately wetter than normal with conditions reaching south into Mississippi and Alabama. Central Florida can also expect some moderate precipitation surpluses. Nevada will be moderately drier than the norm with deficits reaching into California. Utah’s Great Salt Lake region will also be moderately drier. Precipitation deficits are forecast for the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma and into eastern New Mexico. Deficits are also forecast west of Corpus Christi.

Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula will be wetter than normal but many other regions of the nation will be drier. Intense precipitation deficits are forecast for southern Mexico; moderate to severe deficits along the Gulf of Mexico, in the north-central state of Chihuahua, and in the west from Sonora through Nayarit on the central Pacific Coast. The area around Mexico City can expect severe precipitation deficits.

In Central America, extreme precipitation deficits are forecast for central Guatemala, moderate deficits in El Salvador, Honduras, and northern Nicaragua, and surpluses in Costa Rica and western Panama. Cuba, the Bahamas, and Haiti will be wetter than normal; the Dominican Republic will be drier.

In South America, moderate precipitation surpluses are forecast in Colombia, northern Guyana, southern Amazonas and Rondônia, Brazil; and to a lesser extent, in Ecuador, a band across the central Venezuela, and eastern Bolivia. Precipitation deficits are forecast for Pará and Maranhão in Brazil, western Loreto and Cusco in Peru, southwestern Bolivia, northwestern Argentina, and Atacama Province in Chile. Deficits will be severe to extreme in Brazil and Peru.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
Much of the eastern half of the U.S. will be warmer than normal but a vast block will be much warmer including the Great Lakes States, the northern portion of the Ohio River Basin, New England, and well into the Canadian provinces of Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island. Anomalies will be exceptional in many areas of this block including Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut.

Farther south, Florida can expect to be exceptionally warmer than normal. Similar conditions are forecast west of Jackson, Mississippi and in southern Texas, and severe to exceptional warm anomalies are forecast from Amarillo down through Big Bend. Eastern New Mexico and southern Arizona will be warmer than normal. A few pockets in the Rockies will be somewhat cooler: north of Billings, Montana; east of Boise, Idaho; and northwestern Colorado.

In Mexico, temperatures around the Gulf of California will be warmer than normal with anomalies ranging from severe to exceptional. Similar conditions are expected along the central and southern Pacific Coast. Mexico’s north-central states will also be warmer than the norm, with extreme anomalies in Coahuila. Moderately warmer than normal temperatures are forecast along the Gulf of Mexico and in the Yucatan.

Warm anomalies will be severe in much of Central America, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas can expect to be exceptionally warmer than normal.

In South America, most of the continent’s northern half is forecast to be warmer than normal. Areas with exceptionally warmer temperatures include the Guiana Highlands in southern Venezuela; the Andes, especially through Peru and Bolivia; and Pará, Amapá, and Brazil’s easternmost states. Anomalies will be severe to extreme in the northern Amazon Basin, and moderate to severe in Brazil’s southeastern states. A few cooler than normal pockets are expected: north-central Bolivia, and northwestern Mato Grosso do Sul and southern Piauí in Brazil.

Central and southern Europe will see temperatures above the norm including severe anomalies in Germany, France, Spain, and Switzerland. Temperatures will be cooler than normal in Greece and around the Aegean Sea.

Warmer than normal conditions are forecast in Africa across the Sahara, where anomalies will range from moderate to exceptional. Other regions of the continent with a forecast of warmer temperatures include: coastal West African nations and around the Gulf of Guinea reaching down the southern Atlantic Coast; South Africa, southern Mozambique, and Madagascar; southern Kenya; the Ethiopian Highlands and eastern Ethiopia; and pockets of Somalia. Anomalies will be especially intense in southeastern Kenya. Central Africa can expect some cooler than normal pockets in Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda into Kenya, and South Sudan.

In the Middle East, intensely warmer than normal conditions are forecast for many parts of the Arabian Peninsula and into southern and western Iraq. Eastern Turkey and southern Georgia can expect to be warmer than normal with exceptional anomalies in Georgia. Much of central Iran will also be warmer, with severe anomalies along the Persian Gulf and exceptionally warmer conditions in Yazd Province in the center of the country and along the Turkmen border near the Caspian Sea. Conditions will be cooler than normal along Turkey’s north-central coast, in central Oman, and in southeastern Iran.

Temperatures in European Russia will be relatively normal but above-normal temperatures are expected in the North Caucasus region of Southern Russia. Conditions will be much warmer than normal in the Arctic near the Gulf of Ob and in the vast Yenisei River Basin, particularly west of Lake Baikal. Eastern Russia will be somewhat warmer than normal. Central Kazakhstan will be cooler as will eastern Kyrgyzstan. Warmer temperatures are forecast in Central Asia along the eastern Caspian coast.

While the bulk of central India will see relatively normal temperatures, warm anomalies are forecast for southern India, India’s Far North, Far Northeast, and along the Bay of Bengal. Warmer than normal conditions are also forecast for southern Pakistan, Sri Lanka, northern Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. Anomalies will be intense in many regions, particularly Pakistan’s southern half and Bangladesh.

Southeast Asia will be much warmer than normal and extremely to exceptionally warmer conditions will be widespread. Much warmer than normal conditions are also forecast for Malaysia, Indonesia, New Guinea, and the Philippines.

Temperatures on the Korean Peninsula will be moderately warmer than the norm but Japan will be exceptionally warmer in central Honshu. Warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast for many regions in China but exceptionally warmer temperatures are forecast in the south/southeast region, Taiwan, Tibet (Xizang), western Inner Mongolia, and the northwest. Much of Mongolia will be warmer than normal.

Australia, too, is forecast to be warmer than the norm. Above-average temperatures could reach exceptional intensity in eastern Queensland, Top End in Northern Territory, and Western Australia’s central coast. Warm anomalies will be severe in South Island, New Zealand.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released July 2, 2020 which includes forecasts for July 2020 through March 2020 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued June 24 through June 30, 2020.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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