Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits to increase in Yenisei Basin

23 July 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2021 indicates that surplus anomalies will dominate a large region in Russia from the Northern European Plain across the Urals through the Western Siberian Plain. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Vychegda Lowland west of the Urals and along the Severnaya Dvina River. Surpluses are forecast in the Volga River Basin that will be moderate along the lower course of the river and in the middle region of the basin but intense in Trans Volga and the upper basin.

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Intense deficits are forecast on the central banks of the Gulf of Ob; in the region of the Nizhnyaya Tunguska River, a northern right tributary of the Yenisei River; surrounding the Bolshaya Kuonamka and Olenyok Rivers in northern Siberia; north of Lake Baikal; and along the East Siberian Sea.

Deficits are forecast in western Kazakhstan and pockets of eastern Tajikistan. Intense surpluses are expected in northern Kazakhstan and from the Iran-Turkmen border into western Turkmenistan. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast from central Uzbekistan into southern Kazakhstan and western Tajikistan, and in eastern Kyrgyzstan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates that surpluses in Russia from the Northern European Plain through the Western Siberian Plain will shrink and downgrade but remain widespread. Exceptional anomalies will persist in the Vychegda Lowland and on the Severnaya Dvina River. Conditions will normalize on the Lower Volga River and surpluses will shrink and downgrade in the Volga Basin. Intense deficits will emerge on the central shores of the Gulf of Ob and in the Lower Yenisei River region with deficits of varying intensity increasing in much of the remaining Yenisei Basin.

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In Kazakhstan, intense surpluses will persist in the north. Deficits will shrink in the west leaving some moderate anomalies in the Ural River Basin; deficits will also shrink west of Lake Balkhash while surpluses persist southeast of the lake. Some surpluses will persist in Turkmenistan but transitional conditions are also forecast. Surpluses will diminish in Uzbekistan and western Tajikistan, and some moderate deficits are expected in eastern Tajikistan. Surpluses will persist in pockets of Kyrgyzstan and will be intense in the east.

From October through December, surpluses will remain widespread in the vast Ob River Watershed in Russia but will shrink and downgrade overall in European Russia, though intense surpluses will persist in the Vychegda Lowland. Intense deficits will persist on the central shores of the Gulf of Ob but deficits in the Yenisei River Basin and north of Lake Baikal will downgrade, as will deficits along the East Siberian Sea. In Kazakhstan, deficits will nearly disappear, intense surpluses will persist in the north, and moderate surpluses will emerge along the Ile River in the southeast. Moderate surpluses will also emerge on the Amu Darya River in Uzbekistan. Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in southwestern Turkmenistan and persist along the southern border. Surpluses will increase in northern Tajikistan and persist in several regions of Kyrgyzstan.

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2021 – indicates that surpluses will retreat from the Amu Darya River and shrink in the middle region of Russia’s Ob River Basin. Deficits will increase somewhat in the Yenisei River Basin.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
The heat wave in Siberia this year helped sustain June wildfires that put more carbon emissions into the atmosphere in one month that in any other month since record-keeping began 18 years ago. Greenpeace estimates from satellite data indicate that Russian fires have burned 19 million hectares in 2020, an area larger than Greece.

About 150,000 barrels of diesel fuel leaked into a river in Russia’s Krasnoyarsk region, spreading into an Arctic lake, after warm weather melted the permafrost and the shifting ground caused a tank to burst.

Drought in Russia’s Altai region, called the “granary of Siberia,” could result in a 50 percent loss of crop yields. During a warm spring and an unusually hot summer, some areas reportedly received no rainfall for two months.

Farmers in the Sverdlovsk region of Russia in the Ural Mountains are forecasting significant losses to the potato harvest this year after high temperatures and dry conditions, as well as a 30 to 50 percent shortfall in grains.

Without enough water to meet its irrigation needs, Uzbekistan will increase the amount of water it pumps from a reservoir in Tajikistan for crops in the Syr Darya River Basin.

The government of Kazakhstan has plans to increase the area of irrigated agriculture in the country while reducing acreage devoted to water-intensive crops such as cotton and rice.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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