Africa: Water deficits in the south will downgrade

20 August 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through April 2021 indicates intense water deficits across much of western North Africa including exceptional anomalies, and mixed conditions in Egypt. Exceptional deficits are also forecast from southern Cameroon through Equatorial Guinea into western Gabon; in southwestern coastal areas of Angola and Namibia; and on Sudan’s Red Sea Coast. Intense deficits are forecast for Djibouti.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202005-202104_12mo_twitter.png

Some areas of surplus are forecast in the Sahel reaching into northern Nigeria where anomalies will be exceptional. Scattered mild to moderate deficits are expected in West Africa but anomalies will be extreme in Sierra Leone.

Widespread surpluses are expected in East Africa from southern Ethiopia through Tanzania. Surpluses will be exceptional in a pocket of western Kenya and moderate to extreme elsewhere in the region. A pocket of surplus is forecast in northeastern Madagascar and a few small pockets elsewhere on the island.

Deficits, primarily moderate, are forecast for the central Congo River Basin and northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo as well as pockets in northern Angola, northern Zambia, northern Malawi, and northern and southwestern Mozambique. In South Africa, some scattered deficits are forecast but moderate surpluses are expected from southern Orange Free State into Eastern Cape.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through October indicates that intense deficits will shrink in Morocco but emerge in western Algeria, with deficits of varying intensity in the remainder of western North Africa. Surpluses are forecast in Egypt. Water surpluses in the southern Sahara and Sahel will shrink and downgrade, though remain widespread in northern Nigeria. Deficits in Sierra Leone will become merely mild.

ISciences_Africa_Composite_Adjusted_202005-202104_3mo_twitter.png

Deficit and surplus anomalies in central Africa will shrink and downgrade but widespread surpluses will persist in the East with exceptional surpluses in southern Tanzania. Exceptional deficits will disappear from the Horn of Africa and will nearly disappear from the southern half of the continent, persisting in pockets of central South Africa. In Madagascar, surpluses in the northeast and southeast will shrink and downgrade; deficits will intensify in a small pocket on the central west coast.

From November 2020 through January 2021, anomalies throughout most of the continent will shrink considerably, leaving nearly normal conditions in much of southern Africa. Exceptional deficits will emerge in Mauritania, southern Morocco, and northern Senegal, and moderate deficits in Guinea, Guinea Bissau, and other nations in West Africa. Surpluses in northern Nigeria will transition as intense deficits emerge. Intense deficits will emerge in eastern Eritrea and moderate deficits will persist in the central Congo Basin. Surpluses in East Africa will shrink and downgrade considerably.

The forecast for the final quarter – February through April 2021 – indicates some significant deficits at the conjoined borders of Libya, Egypt, and Sudan, and primarily moderate deficits elsewhere in North Africa. Surpluses in East Africa will nearly disappear.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Flooding in Sudan has left 63 people dead since July after heavy seasonal rainfall and 185,000 have been affected. In the southeastern state of Blue Nile, the Bout Dam collapsed, flooding hundreds of homes, killing five people, and releasing five million cubic feet of water intended for agricultural and drinking by 100,000 area residents.

Relentless rainfall in the Great Rift Valley of Kenya over the past few months has forced thousands from their homes as flooding devoured farms, schools, and medical facilities. The area is on the brink of an ecological disaster as two nearby lakes, one saline and one fresh, approach the point of merging. Lake Baringo, a freshwater lake, provides drinking water to the local population, while Lake Bogoria, a few kilometres away is saline. Lake levels have risen by as much as 30 to 40 feet, more than longtime residents have seen in a lifetime. Forced to relocate, the potential for conflict has risen as the displaced seek new land.

The 650,000 residents of Bulawayo, Zimbabwe’s second largest city, have been without running water since mid-August. With water in two local reservoirs reduced by drought to just 26 percent of storage capacity, the city had already been enduring limited tap access, once a week, since May but the recent shut-off allows only container fill-ups. Compounding the problems, defective water infrastructure has contributed to 13 deaths in July from waterborne diseases.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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