Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus will persist in the Yucatan

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water surplus will persist in the Yucatan

20 August 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending April 2021 indicates deficits of varying severity in much of western Mexico. In the nation’s northwest quadrant, deficits will be widespread from Baja into northern Coahuila. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity around the northern Gulf of California in pockets of Baja and northwestern Sonora and will be extreme from central Chihuahua into northern Durango.

Surpluses are expected in northeastern Sonora at the confluence of the Batepito, Bavispe, and Yaqui Rivers; from southern Durango into western Zacatecas; and a few pockets elsewhere in the north.

Deficits will follow the Pacific Coast states from Nayarit through Oaxaca in the south, reaching into the center of the country as well. Anomalies will be exceptional in Nayarit and in Jalisco’s capital of Guadalajara. Intense surpluses are forecast for the Yucatan Peninsula.

In Central America, moderate to severe surpluses are expected in Belize and in pockets of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and southern Nicaragua. Surpluses of equal intensity are forecast for Costa Rica and western Panama.

Moderate deficits are expected in eastern Cuba and Haiti, extreme deficits in Turks and Caicos, and surpluses in the central Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will downgrade in Mexico, but leave severe deficits from central Chihuahua into northern Durango and in pockets of southern Veracruz, particularly along the Coatzacoalcos and Papaloapan Rivers. Moderate deficits are forecast for Baja. Other areas with a forecast of deficit include central Puebla, Hidalgo, and southern Guanajuato.

Surpluses of varying intensity will persist in northeastern Sonora in the region of the Batepito, Bavispe, and Yaqui Rivers. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast from southern Durango into western Zacatecas and along the San Juan River through Nuevo Leon. Surpluses reaching exceptional intensity will persist in the Yucatan Peninsula.

In Central America, surpluses will shrink and downgrade but persist, particularly in Belize, Guatemala, southern Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Deficits in the Caribbean will be generally mild, and some surpluses are forecast.

From November 2020 through January 2021, normal conditions are expected in many parts of Mexico as anomalies shrink, but moderate to severe deficits will persist from Chihuahua into Durango, moderate deficits will emerge in neighboring Coahuila, and surpluses will persist in Sonora, southern Durango, and the Yucatan. Conditions in many parts of Central America and the Caribbean will normalize though pockets of surplus are forecast.

The forecast for the final three months – February through April 2021 – indicates that deficits will persist in north-central Mexico and exceptional deficits will emerge along the central Pacific Coast. Pockets of surplus are expected in the Yucatan, Central America, and the Caribbean.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Hurricane Hanna swept through northeastern Mexico at the end of July, leaving at least three people dead and others missing, presumed dead. The fatalities occurred in the states of Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, and Coahuila. In Nuevo Leon, electrical power was disrupted in Monterrey City and the road between Monterrey and Reynosa was impassible.

Flooding on the Bejuco River in Panama during the first week of August claimed the lives of 11 members of the same family in early August as torrential rainfall swept their home away.

In Costa Rica, the southern and northern regions of the nation reported flooding in mid-August when several rivers overflowed after heavy rainfall.

The same storm hit Nicaragua’s Caribbean coast, triggering flooding as the Kukalaya River overflowed its banks, destroying homes, trees, and power lines and cutting off several communities.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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