South Asia: Water surpluses will moderate in Bangladesh

South Asia: Water surpluses will moderate in Bangladesh

22 September 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2021 indicates widespread water surpluses in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and western and central India.

Surplus conditions will dominate all of Bangladesh with extreme to exceptional anomalies in most regions. Exceptional anomalies will prevail in Pakistan in the Hindu Kush, the Indus River Basin, and in a column from Quetta past Karachi in the south. Much of the remainder of the nation outside of the southwest can expect surpluses of varying intensity. Afghanistan, too, will see surpluses of varying intensity, with extreme anomalies in Kandahar and severe anomalies in Kabul. Conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are forecast in the Upper Helmand River region as transitions occur.

In India, surpluses will be exceptional in the Far North, along the western coast from Maharashtra through Goa, and in northern Telangana. Severe to extreme surpluses are forecast for Gujarat, and surpluses of varying intensity from there into the center of the country in southern Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh, and in Karnataka in the southwest. Surpluses are also forecast in regions bordering Nepal, and in Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Arunachal Pradesh in the Far Northeast. Deficits are expected in the center of the country in northern Madhya Pradesh and in the nation’s southern tip in Tamil Nadu. Moderate surpluses are forecast for Sri Lanka’s southwest corner.

In Nepal, surpluses are expected throughout the country, severe in Kathmandu and exceptional along the Gandak River through the center of the nation and into India. Western Bhutan can also expect surpluses.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through November indicates that surpluses will moderate in Bangladesh, shrink and moderate in Nepal, but remain widespread and intense in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Conditions of both deficit and surplus (pink/purple) are also forecast in Afghanistan, and moderate deficits will emerge in southwestern Pakistan. In India, the distribution pattern of surplus will be much like that of the prior three months’ observed conditions, but anomalies will shrink and downgrade somewhat. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Kerala; deficits in Tamil Nadu will disappear; and widespread surpluses in Sri Lanka will shrink considerably. Surpluses will also shrink considerably in India’s Far Northeast and deficits will emerge in central Assam.

From December 2020 through February 2021, surpluses will remain fairly intense in Goa, Karnataka, and Telangana, but primarily moderate in southern Madhya Pradesh and northern Maharashtra. Conditions of both deficit and surplus are forecast for Gujarat. Surpluses will downgrade in the Far North, and shrink and moderate in Nepal, regions of India near Nepal, and in Jharkhand and Bangladesh. Moderate deficits are expected in India’s Far Northeast. Surpluses in Pakistan and Afghanistan will shrink but remain intense, particularly in Pakistan where exceptional anomalies will continue to be widespread. Conditions in southwestern Pakistan will normalize.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2021 – indicates intense surpluses in Pakistan; generally moderate surpluses in the same regions of India as in the prior three months, and in Nepal and Bangladesh; and nearly normal conditions in Afghanistan.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy rains at the end of August triggered flash flooding in Afghanistan, killing at least 80 people in Charikar north of Kabul. Floodwater swept cars away, destroyed 2,000 homes, and created mudslides that buried people as they lay sleeping.

Bangladesh has imported 54 percent more maize in fiscal year 2019-2020, necessitated by heavy crop losses due to intense precipitation and flooding. This year’s record monsoon that left more than half of the country’s districts flooded may prove to be a cautionary tale as the nation moves forward with construction of a nuclear power plant near the Padma River. After several months of rain, the river nearly doubled in size.

Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, received record-breaking rainfall in late August when 230 mm (9 inches) fell in just 12 hours. The deluge was so intense it smashed through windows and broke down doors, overwhelming the city’s water system and leaving some of its 200,000 inhabitants without clean drinking water. At least six people died of electrocution, though many utility substations had failed or been shut down to prevent injuries.

Losses were high in India from the June through September monsoon season. Heavy rainfall and flooding claimed the lives of 1,503 people and 7,842 cattle, and damaged 27,5045 homes. Crop losses were widespread. The tea crop in Assam is expected to be down by 25 percent due to flooding and the coronavirus pandemic. Onion prices are up with limited production from the kharif (summer) crop in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, and damage to the stored rabi (winter) crop in Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh. Overall crop losses in Gujarat are estimated at 20 to 25 percent, affecting groundnuts, cotton, pulses, and sesame.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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