Canada: Water deficits will persist in the east

Canada: Water deficits will persist in the east

21 November 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through July 2021 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Areas of exceptional deficit include vast blocks on Quebec’s northeastern border leading into western Labrador, along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the Quebec/Ontario border.

Deficits will also be intense in Newfoundland, New Brunswick, and in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District. Surpluses are forecast in Quebec south of Lake Saint-Jean, and in Ontario west of Ottawa and along the shore of Hudson Bay.

Exceptional deficits are forecast on Hudson Bay in Manitoba, in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg reaching into Ontario, and around Winnipeg. Large pockets of surplus are forecast in north-central and northwestern Manitoba. Northwestern Saskatchewan can expect conditions of severe to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west across the border with Alberta. Surpluses are also expected around Calgary, Alberta. Deficits will reach exceptional intensity in central Alberta in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed and in the province’s northwest corner spanning the border with British Columbia. Deficits are also forecast for north-central British Columbia, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and intensifying in the Northwest Territories.

In British Columbia, surpluses will be moderate in the north around Fort St. John and exceptional around Williston Lake. Surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in the Fraser River Watershed in the south where surpluses will be exceptional near Kamloops. Vancouver Island’s central Pacific region can expect extreme deficits.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through January 2021 indicates that vast areas of exceptional deficit will persist along Quebec’s border into Labrador, along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini, and spanning the northern portion of the Ontario/Quebec border. Intense deficits are also forecast in Newfoundland and southern Nova Scotia. Deficits will shrink from Montreal through the Gaspé Peninsula and New Brunswick. Surpluses south of Quebec’s Gouin Reservoir will downgrade. Deficits will persist northeast of Toronto, Ontario and in western Kenora District; moderate surpluses will persist along Hudson Bay.

In Manitoba, exceptional deficits will persist along Hudson Bay and across the center of the province, with surpluses between. Deficits will increase in the southern half of the province. Intense deficits are forecast in southeastern Saskatchewan and surpluses in the north. In Alberta, deficits will persist in the Middle Athabasca River region and in the northwest crossing into British Columbia; surpluses are expected near Calgary and in the north around Lake Claire. In British Columbia, surpluses will increase in the south, remaining exceptional near Kelowna, and will persist around Lake Williston in the north, reaching east past Fort St. John. Deficits will shrink but remain intense on Vancouver Island, and intense deficits will persist in northern British Columbia.

From February through April 2021, deficits will downgrade in the Maritimes, persist with intensity in Newfoundland and large blocks of Quebec, shrink and moderate in southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan, downgrade in the Middle Athabasca River region of Alberta, and retreat from Vancouver Island. Surplus anomalies in the Prairie Provinces and British Columbia will shrink somewhat.

The forecast for the final months – May through July 2021 – indicates that conditions in many regions of the country will normalize though pockets of intense deficit are forecast in Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba. Surpluses are expected the northern reaches of the Prairie Provinces and in central and southern British Columbia.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Severe drought in New Brunswick forced cranberry farmers in the region, the nation’s third largest cranberry-producing area, to adapt as reservoirs fell to record low levels, raising irrigation costs. Water is essential in the process of harvesting and is also used to protect the plants from extreme heat, which the province experienced this summer. The recent drought was a one-in-25-years event, says a local environmental expert.

Canada’s potato harvest is forecast to decline by about 6 percent with drought and heat suppressing production in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes. Pear exports for 2020-2021 are also expected to fall due to drought in Ontario.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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