Middle East: Water deficits will intensify in Georgia

Middle East: Water deficits will intensify in Georgia

21 November 2020

THE BIG PICTURE
The forecast for the 12-month period ending July 2021 indicates intense water deficits in the Levant, much of Turkey, Iraq west of the Euphrates River, and northern Saudi Arabia. Exceptional deficits will cover nearly all of Jordan and many pockets elsewhere. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for northern Syria and a small pocket near Mosul in Iraq, where intense surpluses are also forecast. Mild to moderate deficits are expected in central Saudi Arabia but anomalies will be more intense in the southeast corner, becoming exceptional in United Arab Emirates. Extreme deficits are forecast for Qatar.

Pockets of surplus are expected in southwestern Saudi Arabia and along much of Saudi Arabia’s southern border reaching well into Yemen. Surpluses will be moderate overall and transitional conditions are also forecast. Intense deficits are forecast for Yemen’s southwestern tip along with both deficits and surpluses as transitions occur.

Deficits reaching extreme intensity are expected along the Persian Gulf in Iran, and exceptional deficits with transitional conditions near the Strait of Hormuz. Moderate deficits are predicted in central Iranian provinces. In the north, surpluses are expected in Tehran leading to transitional conditions in the northeast near Turkmenistan.

Deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast for Georgia and moderate deficits are predicted in Azerbaijan.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through January 2021 indicates that widespread water anomalies, deficits and surpluses, will shrink considerably in the region. In Georgia, however, deficits will intensify with severe to exceptional anomalies forecast. Small pockets of deficit will trace Turkey’s central and eastern Black Coast and severe deficits will form a path through Kayseri Province in the center of the nation. Moderate deficits are expected in eastern Azerbaijan. Exceptional surpluses will re-emerge in central Syria though transitional conditions will persist slightly north. In Iraq, intense surpluses will persist around Mosul. In Iran, a mix of moderate surplus and transitional conditions is forecast in the northwest with extreme surpluses in the north surrounding Tehran and leading to the Turkmen border where surpluses will persist amid transitions. Transitional conditions are also forecast in southern Iran reaching inland from the Strait of Hormuz though deficits are forecast as well.

On the Arabian Peninsula, intense deficits are expected in a pocket of southern Riyadh Province and surpluses of varying intensity will span the border with Yemen and Oman, reaching well into Yemen. Moderate deficits will re-emerge in Yemen’s southwestern tip.

From February through April 2021, anomalies will continue to shrink leaving normal water conditions in much of the region. Deficits are forecast in small pockets of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and western Turkey. Deficits in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Province will moderate, and moderate deficits will emerge in Oman and in a pocket of southern Iran near the Gulf of Oman. Intense surpluses along with transitional conditions will persist in northern Syria, near Mosul, and in northeastern Iran. Transitions are forecast in Iran near the Strait of Hormuz and in Saudi Arabia along its southern border.

In the final quarter – May through July 2021 – surpluses will nearly disappear, persisting in a small pocket near Mosul. Deficits will increase, generally mild to moderate overall but more intense in southern Saudi Arabia and pockets of central Iran.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Water levels in dams that supply the 15 million residents of Istanbul, Turkey dropped to 29 percent. Experts warn of possible shortages and toxicity.

Iran has inaugurated a major desalination project to move water from the Persian Gulf to central Iranian provinces, converting 450 million cubic meters of saltwater into 150 million cubic meters of desalinated water destined for Kerman.

The Kurdistan region of northern Iraq is proposing to build a series of dams on tributaries of the Tigris River to address chronic water shortages. Critics in downstream Iraq say the project would threaten the Mesopotamian marshes and users in southern Iraq, particularly in Basra.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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