Global Precipitation & Temperature Outlook November 2021

3 November 2021

OVERVIEW
The November 2021 Outlook indicates wetter than normal conditions in Australia and in the eastern Amazon Basin. Eastern Europe and Western European Russia will be much hotter than normal, as will several regions in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Indonesia.

PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
Much of Australia will be moderately wetter than normal and precipitation surpluses will be extreme in the Eromanga Basin that straddles Queensland, Northern Territory, South Australia, and New South Wales. In the nation’s southeast, precipitation surpluses in the Murray River Basin will be moderate to severe. Moderately drier than normal conditions are forecast for South Island, New Zealand’s southern quarter, but conditions will be severe near the southern end of Lake Wakatipu.

Precipitation outlook. Reds indicate below normal monthly total precipitation. Blues indicate above normal monthly total precipitation. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Mild to moderate deficits are expected in Thailand, Cambodia, and isolated pockets elsewhere in Southeast Asia. Surpluses ranging from moderate to extreme are forecast in some regions of the Pacific nations nearby including Java, the Lesser Sunda Islands, Borneo, Sulawesi, Mindanao, the Maluku Islands, and Papua, Indonesia.

In East Asia, China’s eastern provinces of Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi can expect moderate precipitation surpluses as can far northeastern regions of the country near the Russian border. Surpluses are also forecast in the northern reaches of Xinjiang (Uygur) Region but anomalies will be more intense and will reach into Mongolia. Moderate to severe deficits are expected in Qinghai, and moderate deficits in pockets of southern Tibet (Xizang) and in central China near the Danjiangkou Reservoir straddling Hubei and Henan. Precipitation will be relatively normal on the Korean Peninsula and in Japan.

India’s southern half will be somewhat wetter than normal with conditions reaching into western Sri Lanka. Surpluses will be moderate overall but severe in Odisha and northern Andhra Pradesh. The far northern reaches of India will be moderately drier than normal as will pockets in the Far Northeast. Elsewhere in South Asia, moderate rainfall deficits are forecast for the Hindu Kush and pockets in Afghanistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh.

Relatively normal precipitation is forecast for Central Asia with moderate deficits in northwestern Kyrgyzstan, including Bishkek, and moderate surpluses in northeastern Kazakhstan in the Irtysh River (Ertis) region. Conditions will be wetter than normal in several areas of Russia including the Yamal Peninsula and nearby regions in the Arctic; northern Sakha Republic (Yakutia) near the Laptev Sea, and the Alden River Watershed in eastern Sakha; and Amur Obast in the Russian Far East. Surpluses will be severe in the Alden Watershed and east of the Zeya Reservoir in Amur.

Precipitation deficits are forecast in some regions of the Middle East. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, large pockets in northeastern Iran, and small pockets in Azerbaijan and Armenia. Georgia, however, can expect severe deficits that will elevate to extreme on the coast including Batumi. Moderate to severe deficits will skirt Turkey’s northeastern coast.

Overall in Europe, normal precipitation is forecast. Conditions will be somewhat wetter than normal from southern Austria into Slovenia, and moderate deficits are expected in the Caucasus of southern European Russia.

In Africa, moderate to severe precipitation deficits are forecast in Kenya. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in a strip on Angola’s southeastern coast and in a pocket of southeastern Nigeria surrounding the city of Enugu. Zambia will be moderately drier than normal with deficits extending into Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Elsewhere, areas with a forecast of moderate deficit include pockets of southern Democratic Republic of the Congo and its northern corners, and pockets in Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Morocco, and western Guinea. Eastern Guinea can expect moderate surpluses and pockets are also forecast in Côte d'Ivoire, South Sudan, and northeastern Uganda. Deficits are expected in Madagascar, primarily in the south, and will be moderate overall but severe in the far south.

In the Western Hemisphere, surpluses are forecast across much of Brazil’s breadth, moderate overall but more intense in some regions including Pará. Southern Brazil will be drier than normal with deficits reaching into Uruguay and Argentina. Elsewhere in South America, surpluses will be widespread and severe in western and central Paraguay. Moderate surpluses will extend through the Cordillera Orientals in central Peru, Bolivia, and Argentina. Surpluses are also forecast for the Guianas, southern Venezuela, eastern Ecuador, northern and eastern Bolivia, and Córdoba Province in Argentina. Venezuela’s northwest quadrant will be much drier than normal while deficits in neighboring Colombia will be generally less intense. Deficits of varying intensity will trace the Occidentals through Ecuador and the Cordillera Centrals through Peru. Central Chile can expect deficits, severe in Los Ríos Province and reaching extreme intensity across the border into Argentina.

Central America and the Caribbean can expect normal precipitation overall though deficits are forecast in Nicaragua and the smaller islands of the West Indies. Mexico, too, will see relatively normal rainfall with some moderate deficits in the south between the Gulfs of Mexico and Tehuantepec, and the northern reaches of the Gulf of California.

In the United States, moderately drier than normal conditions are forecast in the lower regions of the Colorado and Gila Rivers in Arizona and California. The Pacific Northwest can expect pockets of moderate surplus.

Eastern Canada will be wetter than normal in Quebec’s northern extreme, while Labrador will be moderately drier than the norm. Some pockets of moderate deficit are forecast around Lake Athabasca in Alberta and Saskatchewan, south of Great Slave Lake in Northwest Territories, and in central Yukon.

TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK
The forecast for Europe indicates moderately warmer than normal temperatures in Central Europe, severe warm anomalies in the Nordic nations, and extreme to exceptional heat anomalies in Eastern Europe reaching through much of Western European Russia to the Ural Mountains. In Mediterranean Europe, temperatures will be nearly normal on the Iberian Peninsula and moderately warmer than normal in Corsica, the Italian islands, and parts of mainland Italy. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast in the Balkans.

Temperature outlook. Reds indicate above normal monthly average temperature. Blues indicate below normal monthly average temperature. The darker the color, the more extreme the anomaly relative to a 1950-2009 climatic baseline. Colors are based on the expected return period of the anomalies.

Across the Mediterranean, warmer than normal temperatures of varying intensity are forecast in many regions of Africa. North Africa can expect moderate to severe warm anomalies overall while anomalies in West Africa and around the Gulf of Guinea will be more intense, with extremely to exceptionally hotter temperatures forecast in several regions including Mali and Nigeria. On the opposite side of the continent, the Horn of Africa will see extreme to exceptional warm anomalies in several regions, particularly Somaliland. South Sudan will be cooler than normal, exceptionally cooler in the Sudd region.

From the heart of Africa in Democratic Republic of the Congo to South Africa’s northern provinces and reaching past the east coast through Madagascar, warm anomalies will prevail. Areas with a forecast of exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures include a vast region at the intersection of Zambia, Angola, Botswana, and Zimbabwe, and the central highlands of Madagascar including Antananarivo. Temperatures in southern Namibia will be cooler than normal with conditions reaching into South Africa.

In the Middle East, moderately warmer than normal temperatures are expected in Turkey, pockets of the Caucasus, and the eastern Mediterranean through Syria and Jordan, along with some severe warm anomalies. On the Arabian Peninsula, much of Saudi Arabia will be moderately to extremely warmer than normal. Anomalies will reach exceptional intensity in Yemen’s southeast and southwest corners and in western United Arab Emirates. Iraq will be warmer than normal west of the Euphrates and in the south, as will regions of Iran bordering the Persian Gulf, with severe to extreme anomalies in Fars Province. Somewhat cooler than normal conditions are forecast in the Hamoun Wetlands of Iran and a pocket in northwestern Oman.

Relatively normal temperatures are expected in much of Central Asia. However, eastern Kyrgyzstan will be moderately cooler than normal and warm anomalies are forecast spanning the Kazakh border into Russia including exceptionally hotter temperatures north of the Caspian Sea. As previously noted, Western European Russia will be hotter than normal. Much of the Central Siberian Plateau will be moderately warmer than the norm, and warm anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in the vast Russian Far East where anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Sakhalin Island in the Sea of Okhotsk and reach well into mainland regions nearby.

In East Asia, temperatures in most of China will be relatively normal but moderately warmer temperatures are forecast in the northeast. Also, warm anomalies are expected in the south through Yunnan, western Sichuan, and southern Tibet (Xizang). Anomalies will be intense in Tibet and southern Yunnan. Qinghai will be warmer than normal as well. Taiwan can expect warm anomalies. Hokkaido, Japan will be exceptionally warmer than normal while anomalies in Honshu will be less intense.

Southern India will be much warmer than normal with conditions reaching through Sri Lanka. Moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast on the Bay of Bengal in Odisha and its inland neighbor, Chhattisgarh. India’s Far Northeast will also be warmer than normal as will the Himalayan region in the nation’s north. Cool anomalies are forecast in much of the Ganges Plain and eastern Rajasthan. Elsewhere in South Asia, nearly normal temperatures are expected, though eastern Bangladesh will be somewhat warmer than normal and some cool anomalies are forecast in southeastern Nepal.

Throughout Southeast Asia and the Pacific, warmer than normal temperatures will prevail. Anomalies will be exceptional in many areas including the Philippines, Myanmar, and Sumatra.

Intense warm anomalies will reach into the northern extremes of Australia while moderate cool anomalies are expected in pockets of the west, and nearly normal conditions in the remainder of the mainland. Tasmania will be much warmer than normal. Northern New Zealand will be moderately warmer than normal while severe warm anomalies are expected in South Island and in New Caledonia.

In South America, exceptionally hotter than normal temperatures are forecast throughout the Andes from Venezuela to Bolivia and reaching into northwestern Argentina. Surrounding areas in the continent’s northwest can expect moderate warm anomalies overall. Though much of Brazil can expect normal temperatures, heat anomalies will be exceptional in the small, eastern states, and moderate overall in western Amazonas, Amapá, northern Pará, the southeast, and south. Other areas where temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal include the Guiana Highlands, Uruguay, Patagonian Argentina and the wine-growing provinces in the northeast, and pockets throughout Chile.

Generally, moderate to severe warm anomalies are forecast for Central America, southern Mexico, and the Caribbean, though Jamaica will be exceptionally hotter than normal. So, too, will Narayit State on Mexico’s central Pacific Coast. North-central Mexico can expect moderate warm anomalies but anomalies in Baja and western Sonora will reach severe intensity.

The western United States will be somewhat warmer than normal with generally moderate anomalies in the Southwest, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest, reaching into southern British Columbia, Canada. Michigan’s Upper Peninsula will be warmer than normal, again, with conditions reaching into Canada. Moderate warm anomalies are forecast in Quebec with more intense anomalies near Hudson Bay. Moderate anomalies are also expected in northern Ontario, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan, but anomalies will become more intense in many parts of Canada’s vast territories to the north.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

ABOUT THIS BLOG POST
Each week, ISciences processes an ensemble of 28 seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2). We present our results in a proprietary weekly report titled Global Water Monitor and Forecast: Precipitation and Temperature Outlook. This blog post summarizes our Outlook released November 2, 2021 which includes forecasts for November 2021 through July 2021 based on NOAA CFSv2 forecasts issued October 25 through October 31, 2021.

Technical details:

Each CFSv2 forecast is bias corrected by:
- Constructing probability density functions from CFSv2 hindcasts.
- Fitting the hindcast probability distribution functions to a generalized extreme value distribution.
- Using an inverse lookup to an extreme value distribution fitted to the observed temperature and precipitation record (Fan & van den Dool 2008, Chen et al. 2002).
The map colors depict the return period of the median forecast anomaly.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble spans both above normal and below normal conditions are hashed as having uncertain direction.
Regions where the interquartile range of the ensemble divided by the median forecast is large (>0.4) are hashed as having uncertain magnitude.
Results are reported in terms of return period using a 1950-2009 baseline.

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