Europe: Widespread water surplus in UK & Central Europe

Europe: Widespread water surplus in UK & Central Europe

23 February 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through October 2021 indicates water surpluses in the United Kingdom, Ireland, western European Russia, and pockets throughout Central Europe and the Balkans.

Surpluses will be intense in Murmansk (Russia), Helsinki (Finland), Oslo (Norway), eastern Denmark, Northern Ireland, Wales, Czech Republic, southern Serbia into Kosovo including Pristina, Umbria in central Italy, and along Spain’s northern coast. Other areas with expected surpluses of generally lesser intensity include pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia, Brittany and coastal France near the Strait of Dover, pockets in the Alps, Slovakia into Hungary, southern Romania, eastern Bulgaria, Montenegro, southern Croatia, and a pocket northeast of Madrid (Spain).

Deficits are expected from the Baltics through western and southern Belarus, and central Norway and the fjords. Deficits will be exceptional in Estonia, Latvia, Finnish Lapland and the Dalälven River Watershed in central Sweden. In European Russia, deficits are forecast in the Volga River Basin and the Upper Mezen River region in the north. Other areas with a forecast of deficit include pockets of Germany, Belgium, France, Italy, and the border region of Albania and Macedonia. Areas with intense anomalies include Belgium and Germany’s Harz Mountains. In France, deficits will be moderate to severe along the southern bend of the Loire River and extreme near Marseille. Italy can expect deficits in Bologna, Sardinia, and Sicily, with intense anomalies in Sardinia.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through April 2021 indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in Estonia and Latvia, but deficits elsewhere will shrink. However, moderate to exceptional deficits are expected to persist in the Dalälven River Watershed in central Sweden; central and north-central Germany, particularly the Harz Mountains region; and pockets of Belgium. Deficits will linger in western Belarus; Auvergne, France and along France’s Mediterranean Coast; and, surrounding Bologna, Italy. Severe deficits will emerge in a pocket of Hungary east of Lake Balaton.

Though surpluses will shrink and downgrade overall, they will persist in western European Russia, large pockets in the Nordic nations, the U.K. and Ireland, the Alps, Central Europe, and the northern Balkans. Pockets will also persist in central and southern Italy and will increase slightly in northern France. Surpluses will persist along Spain’s northern coast and some pockets in central Spain, and intense anomalies will re-emerge along the border of Andalusia and Murcia.

From May through July 2021, surpluses will shrink considerably persisting with greatest extent in Murmansk and pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia. Other regions will persistent surpluses, though generally moderate, include England’s East Anglia region, southern Czech Republic, the Italian Alps and central Italy, and eastern Bulgaria. Exceptional deficits will persist in Estonia and Latvia and will increase in Finnish Lapland. Deficits will persist in central Sweden and increase in Norway. In Germany, deficits will downgrade in the north but moderate deficits will increase slightly north of Munich in the south. Moderate deficits are forecast for Auvergne and southern France and will emerge along the western border with Spain. Deficits near Bologna, Italy will shrink. Severe deficits will emerge in Slovenia and deficits in Hungary will moderate but increase.

The forecast for the remaining months – August through October 2021 – indicates that surpluses will continue to shrink, persisting primarily in Murmansk, East Anglia, Czech Republic, and eastern Bulgaria. Deficits will downgrade.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In mid-February, Romania issued a flood warning for tributaries of the Tisza River as Hungarians paddled canoes through flooded streets of the riverside town of Szolnok. Recent rainfall combined with snow melt in Romania and Ukraine have increased water flows in rivers, sending a carpet of plastic debris to downstream neighbor Hungary. Officials with the Hungarian Water Authority report that floating garbage disposal units have removed 500 cubic meters of waste from the Tisza and Szamos Rivers.

Heavy rain and snowfall in southern Germany early in February temporarily closed parts of the Rhine River to shipping. High water levels prevent ships from passing beneath bridges. The Zwoenitz River in Saxony near the Czech border overflowed as residents of one local community built sandbag barricades to protect their homes.

Elsewhere in Germany, concern is mounting over low soil moisture levels. January 2021 was drier than the same time last year, with deeper layers of soil in severe drought, according to the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research. The deficit has been building for several years, say experts. Groundwater levels in the central state of Hesse at the end of December were below average at nearly three-quarters of the monitoring sites.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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