Europe: Intense water deficits will persist in Estonia & Latvia

Europe: Intense Water deficits will persist in Estonia & Latvia

26 March 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through November 2021 indicates exceptional water deficits in Estonia and Latvia with deficits of lesser intensity in Lithuania and into western Belarus. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in Sweden’s southern half and will be especially widespread and intense in central Sweden’s Dalälven River Watershed, reaching across the border into Norway. Finnish Lapland can expect exceptional deficits.

Surpluses are forecast in Iceland, northern Norway and Finland, and in western European Russia where anomalies will be extreme in Murmansk. Deficits are expected in the Upper Mezen River region of northern Russia, and the Lower Volga River and TransVolga regions (not shown).

Ireland and the United Kingdom can expect surpluses and anomalies will reach across the Strait of Dover into France. Deficits are forecast for Belgium, north-central Germany, central and southern France, and Sardinia and Bologna in Italy. Areas with intense anomalies include the Ardennes region of Belgium and Germany’s Harz Mountains. In France, deficits will be moderate to severe along the Loire River and extreme near Marseille. Surpluses are forecast for Czech Republic, Slovakia, many pockets throughout the Balkans, central and southern Italy, and northern Spain along the Bay of Biscay and a pocket north of Madrid.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions.

The forecast through May indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade considerably. However, widespread surpluses will persist in western European Russia and surpluses will increase in Finland. Many pockets of surplus will persist in Czech Republic, Slovakia, the Alps, throughout the Balkans, and a few pockets in Italy. Some surpluses will linger in East Anglia, England, and small pockets in Spain.

Deficits will remain exceptional in Estonia and Latvia and severe in Lithuania and western Belarus; increase in southern Sweden; persist in Germany and Belgium; and emerge in Denmark. Extreme deficits will emerge in Hungary east of Lake Balaton, and deficits will increase in central and southern France. Deficits surrounding Bologna, Italy will intensify, becoming exceptional.

From June through August, surpluses will continue to shrink, persisting primarily in Murmansk, Iceland, a few pockets around the Gulf of Bothnia, and East Anglia. Deficits will persist in the Baltics though the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink slightly. Deficits will persist in Sweden’s southern half and will emerge throughout much of Norway. In Germany and Belgium, deficits are expected to downgrade somewhat, while increasing in France, and emerging in Switzerland and the Piedmont region of northern Italy. Deficits in Bologna will downgrade but Sicily can expect intense deficits. In Spain, some moderate to severe deficits will emerge in Catalonia, western Andalusia, and along the coast near Valencia.

The forecast for the remaining months – September through November – indicates nearly normal water conditions overall, with persistent surpluses in Murmansk, and downgraded deficits in Estonia and Latvia. A pocket of moderate to severe deficit will persist in Auvergne, France.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Despite heavy February snowfall in some parts of Germany, soil moisture deficits persist, notes a climate expert at the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research. Significant precipitation through April will be necessary for deeper soil layers to replenish moisture.

In the Klövensteen forest west of Hamburg, reforestation efforts are underway to plant 70,000 new trees to replace hundreds of Sitka spruces that succumbed to drought last year, and to increase forested area that provides a natural air-conditioning system to the region.

Italy’s famed Po River, the longest in the country, is currently as dry as it was in August of last year. Its right tributary, the Enzo, is nearing an all-time low. Precipitation shortages in the Emilia-Romagna region of northern Italy are threatening spring sowing of corn, soy, and beets, reports the nation’s oldest farmers’ organization, Coldiretti. Farmers in the region are facing a difficult choice of whether to pay for costly irrigation or suffer yield losses.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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