Canada: Water deficits will persist in southern MB

31 March 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through November 2021 indicates vast areas of water deficit in the eastern half of the nation. Areas of exceptional deficit include southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, Nova Scotia’s southern tip, northeastern Quebec into western Labrador and along the Gulf of St. Lawrence, west of Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the northern Quebec/Ontario border.

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Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Southern Ontario reaching east through Ottawa, Montreal, and Québec City. Likewise, deficits will be widespread and of varying intensity in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District. Exceptional deficits are forecast on Hudson Bay in Manitoba and in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg, with surpluses elsewhere in the north reaching west into Saskatchewan. Severe deficits are forecast in southern Manitoba with exceptional anomalies around Winnipeg.

Northwestern Saskatchewan can expect conditions of severe to exceptional surplus leading north well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories and west into Alberta. Some moderate deficits are expected in the southeast.

Surpluses are expected in a pocket east of Calgary, Alberta. Deficits will be intense in central Alberta in the Middle Reaches of the Athabasca River Watershed and in the province’s northwest corner spanning the border with British Columbia.

Deficits are forecast near British Columbia’s northern border, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Deficits are also forecast southeast of Prince George, on Vancouver Island, and in the province’s southeast corner. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the Fraser River Watershed of the south where anomalies will be exceptional near Kelowna.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through May indicates that exceptional deficits will persist in southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia’s southern tip; on the Quebec/Labrador border; along the Gulf of St. Lawrence and west of Lake Mistassini; and spanning much of the Ontario/Quebec border. Surpluses will emerge in the easternmost reaches of Labrador and Quebec but will retreat south of the Gouin Reservoir. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast north of Lake Erie and from north of Lake Ontario through Ottawa, Montreal, and Quebec City. Surpluses will retreat in Ontario northeast of Lake Superior, transitioning to moderate deficit in some regions, and increase near Hudson Bay. Widespread, intense deficits will persist in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District.

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Deficits will persist in southern Manitoba reaching exceptional intensity near Winnipeg. Deficits in southern Saskatchewan will shrink, persisting in the southeast including Regina. Deficits in the Middle Athabasca River region of Alberta will intensify, surpluses will persist near Calgary, and some areas of deficit will emerge in the south. In British Columbia, surpluses will increase in the Fraser River Watershed, shrink around Lake Williston in the north, and deficits will shrink on Vancouver Island.

From June through August, surpluses in Canada’s east will nearly disappear and the extent of exceptional deficit will shrink though vast pockets will persist, including a wide corridor spanning the Quebec/Ontario border. Deficits will moderate in southern Manitoba and nearly disappear in southern Saskatchewan and Alberta. Surpluses will persist in the Fraser River Watershed in British Columbia, and near-normal conditions will return to Vancouver Island.

The forecast for the final months – September through November – indicates that conditions in much of the east will normalize, deficits in southern Manitoba will moderate, and surpluses in southern British Columbia will shrink somewhat.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Soil moisture deficits continue to concern Prairie Province farmers as they move into the sowing season. Parts of southwestern Manitoba have received nearly 30 percent less precipitation since the beginning of November last year and Winnipeg had its third driest winter on record. The big snowstorms that normally replenish soil moisture just didn’t happen, pointing to moisture deficits with potential impacts on crop production. Provincial water officials are preparing to hold back water in the Shellmouth Reservoir if drought conditions threaten. As the dry spring continues, Winnipeg’s fire service urges caution, and is responding to wildfires, anticipating hundreds.

The community of Red Deer in central Alberta had its driest winter in nearly a century. Normally, from December through February, Red Deer receives about 49.9mm of precipitation, but this past winter brought just 9.6mm. Edmonton, too, had a dry winter, the driest in 136 years.

In British Columbia, however, winter snowpack levels as of 1 March were averaging 114 percent. The city of West Kelowna has pre-emptively established eight self-serve sandbag locations in the event of flood activity.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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