Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits will emerge in Sonora

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits will emerge in Sonora

26 April 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending December 2021 indicates water deficits reaching exceptional intensity in northern Baja, Mexico. Primarily moderate deficits are expected in the nation’s north central and northeastern states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Nuevo León. Moderate deficits are also forecast in a wide path following the Gulf through Tamaulipas, eastern San Luis Potosí, Veracruz, Puebla, and reaching into Oaxaca and eastern Chiapas.

In Central America, moderate deficits are predicted for central Guatemala and around El Salvador’s capital city, San Salvador. Surpluses are forecast in Honduras, southern Nicaragua, pockets of Costa Rica, and western Panama. Anomalies will be moderate overall but extreme in northern Honduras.

In the Caribbean, intense surpluses are forecast in Jamaica; pockets of surplus are forecast in Cuba and the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through June indicates that deficits will increase in northern Mexico but retreat considerably coast to coast across the nation’s middle. Moderate deficits will emerge in much of the Baja Peninsula and western Sonora, but anomalies will be exceptional in the tip of Baja and in a path down the middle of Sonora. Deficits are also forecast for Chihuahua and Coahuila. Surpluses will diminish in the Yucatan and nearby southern states. Moderate surpluses will re-emerge in coastal Michoacán and in a pocket of southern Durango. In Central America, surpluses will shrink but remain widespread, with extreme anomalies forecast for northern Honduras. Exceptional surpluses are forecast for Jamaica, and pockets of surplus are expected in Cuba and the Bahamas.

From July through September, nearly normal conditions will return to northern Mexico with some moderate deficits lingering in northern Baja. Deficits ranging from moderate to severe will emerge in states along the Gulf Coast from Tamaulipas through Tabasco, seeping into land-locked neighboring states. A pocket of exceptional surplus will re-emerge on the northeastern border of Sonora in the region of the Rio Batepito, and a pocket of moderate surplus will persist in southern Durango. Deficits will emerge in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Near-normal conditions are forecast for Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama with some lingering pockets of moderate surplus in Panama. Transitions are expected in Jamaica. Some areas of surplus are forecast for Cuba and the Bahamas.

The forecast for the final three months – October through December – indicates nearly normal conditions for much of Mexico with pockets of moderate deficit in southern Chihuahua and around the southern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate deficits are also forecast for Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Jamaica.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Since the beginning of the year, Mexico has received 26 percent less precipitation through 4 April, reports the nation’s water authority, Conagua. Presently, 85 percent of Mexico is in drought. The Cutzamala reservoir system that supplies Mexico City’s 20 million inhabitants with a quarter of their water is well below average capacity at just 49 percent, in response to which officials have reduced the flow of water.

The northwestern state of Sonora is experiencing its worst drought in 60 years, with dams at just 27.9 percent of capacity. The northern border town of Nogales has requested a state of emergency to secure federal funding for water infrastructure investment to address water shortages that affect 70,000 people, while the municipal government is providing desperately needed food for livestock.

In the Mexican state of Michoacán, Lake Cuitzeo, once the second-largest lake in the country, has dried up and is now used as a shortcut for motorists who speed by abandoned fishing boats. The lake has been in attrition for decades due to drought, water diversion projects, and deforestation, and the region’s once robust fishing yields have shrunk to just 5 percent of 1990s catches.

Intense rainfall early in April caused flash flooding in Haiti that left at least three people dead in northern and central regions as many rivers overflowed. A mid-month rainstorm deluged Costa Rica’s Caribbean coast, causing flooding that reached the rooftops in one community in the capital, Limón, and damaged roads, created power outages, and kept recue personnel busy.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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