ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List May 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST MAY 2021

14 May 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in February 2021 and running through January 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List May 14, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through July indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in the West, Southwest, Pacific Northwest, Rockies, and Texas. Other areas of deficit include North Dakota, Michigan, New England, and the South Atlantic. Surpluses are forecast in Louisiana and Mississippi.

Canada: The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will increase in the east as surpluses shrink, and vast areas of exceptional deficit will persist. Deficits in southern Manitoba will be severe. Deficits will shrink and moderate in southern Saskatchewan and remain intense on Vancouver Island.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through July indicates moderate to severe water deficits in north-central Mexico and in a wide arc through the Gulf Coast states and land-locked neighbors. Surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Central America but remain widespread.

South America: The forecast through July indicates widespread water deficits in Brazil south of the Amazon, exceptional in many regions. Exceptional deficits are also forecast along the Paraguay River through its namesake and along the Paraná River through Brazil, Paraguay, and Argentina.

Europe: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will decrease in Eastern Europe and the Balkans and shrink but remain widespread in Western European Russia. Deficits will increase in central Europe and will be particularly widespread and severe in France.

Africa: The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will increase across North Africa as exceptional deficits emerge in the east, but deficits will downgrade in the Horn, around the Gulf of Guinea, Angola, and southwestern Namibia. Areas of surplus include the Sahel and Botswana.

Middle East: The forecast through July indicates that water deficits will increase though the extent of exceptional deficit will diminish. Areas of intense deficit include many pockets throughout Turkey, Riyadh Province in Saudi Arabia, and Fars Province in southern Iran.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through July indicates water deficits in Russia’s Pechora River region, on the Gulf of Ob, the Lower Yenisei River area, and the Central Siberian Plateau. Surpluses in the Lower Ob Watershed will shrink. Deficits on the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan will moderate.

South Asia: The forecast through July indicates near-normal conditions in central India, but intense water deficits in the Far Northeast. Surpluses will retreat from the Western Ghats but persist in much of the Deccan Plateau and to the east coast. Bangladesh will return to near-normal conditions.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will shrink considerably. Surpluses are forecast for Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines, and the Lesser Sunda Islands where anomalies will be intense. Deficits will emerge northwest of Mandalay, Myanmar.

East Asia: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses will persist in Northeast China and the Yellow River Watershed but shrink considerably in the Yangtze region. Deficits in Southeast China will shrink and downgrade. Mild surpluses are forecast in Japan and normal conditions in Korea.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through July indicates that water surpluses in southeastern Australia will shrink, retreating from the Upper Murray River region but persisting in northeastern New South Wales. Deficits are forecast for many regions of New Zealand.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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