Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Mexico will downgrade

Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Water deficits in Mexico will downgrade

25 May 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending January 2022 indicates water deficits in many regions of Mexico. Deficits ranging from moderate to exceptional are forecast in the northeastern states of Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas, and south following the Gulf through Veracruz and smaller inland neighbors. Exceptional deficits are expected in many small pockets but will be widespread in Coahuila.

Exceptional deficits are also forecast for northern Baja, moderating in the south. Across the Gulf of California, the state of Sonora can expect deficits of varying intensity. Generally mild to moderate deficits are forecast for many other regions of the nation including Chihuahua in the north, states along the central Pacific Coast, and the western half of the Yucatán Peninsula.  

In Central America, moderate deficits are forecast for central Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to severe surpluses are predicted for northern Honduras, southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.

In the Caribbean, intense surpluses are expected in Jamaica, and surpluses of varying intensity in pockets of Cuba and the Bahamas.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through July indicates that prior widespread exceptional deficits across central Mexico will retreat as will surpluses in the south and the Yucatán, transitioning to normal conditions or mild deficit. Moderate to severe deficits are forecast for Coahuila in the north, along with a few small pockets of greater intensity. Deficits will also be moderate to severe in the southeast corner of Chihuahua, Coahuila’s western neighbor, and in pockets forming a long arc through the Gulf states from Tamaulipas through Tabasco and into land-locked neighboring states. Deficits are forecast for the Baja Peninsula as well, moderate overall. In Central America, surpluses will shrink and downgrade and moderate deficits will emerge in El Salvador. Intense surpluses will persist in Jamaica, pockets of surplus in Cuba and the Bahamas, and some moderate deficits will emerge in Hispaniola.  

From August through October, nearly normal conditions will return to northern Mexico with some moderate deficits lingering in northern Baja and southeastern Chihuahua. Deficits will intensify, however, in a wide arc on the Gulf side of the nation from Tamaulipas past Tabasco and will include exceptional anomalies in San Luis Potosí. A pocket of exceptional surplus will persist on the northeastern border of Sonora in the region of the Rio Batepito. Deficits are forecast for Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, and western Honduras. Moderate surpluses will linger in southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Transitions are forecast in Jamaica and nearly normal conditions in the rest of the Caribbean.

The forecast for the final three months – November 2021 through January 2022 – indicates mild deficits and normal conditions for much of Mexico, but moderate to severe anomalies in southern Baja, the central north, and in an arc through the Gulf Coast states and small inland neighbors. A few pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in northern Central American nations, and pockets of moderate surplus in the south. Moderate surpluses will emerge in Jamaica.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in the eastern Caribbean has caused water deficits in several territories. Water rationing has been instituted in St. Lucia’s Southern Choiseul district and water trucks have been deployed. The water shortages were exacerbated by the eruption of La Soufriere volcano which destroyed four water systems in the region, adding supply stress to the remaining eight systems as 15,000 people were relocated. Grenada has also begun water rationing. Barbados will need to secure water from Guyana and Dominica as its water supply has been affected by drought, volcanic ash, and a temporarily out-of-service desalination plant.

Mexico’s first quarter corn imports broke records as dry conditions threatened the nation’s corn output. Drought has hit the state of Sinaloa on the west coast, Mexico’s leading corn producer, particularly hard, and negative impacts are also being felt in Tamaulipas State on the Gulf.

In Chihuahua, a state in northern Mexico, some municipalities are seeing crop loss of up to 90 percent for corn, beans, potatoes and sorghum with the majority of loss experienced by indigenousness communities. Agriculture has a significant impact on the state’s economy, normally drawing laborers from other areas who have now lost income, creating security issues as thefts increase. Prices for many staple food items have risen.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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