East Asia: Water deficits in SE China will shrink

24 June 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast for East Asia through February 2022 indicates widespread water surpluses in Northeast China with exceptional anomalies from northwest Jilin into Heilongjiang in the Songhua River Watershed. Surpluses in the Yellow (Huang He) River Watershed will be moderate overall but severe in the river’s upper reaches in eastern Qinghai and exceptional in some pockets of the Ordos Loop. In the Yangtze Basin, surpluses are expected primarily in the middle region of the watershed, moderate in a broad area around Wuhan but more intense in the Yuan River (Yuanjiang) region, a southern tributary.

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In Southeast China, moderate to extreme deficits are forecast in Guangdong but deficits in Taiwan will reach exceptional intensity. Deficits will also be exceptional from northwestern Yunnan into eastern Tibet (Xizang) and southern Sichuan. Mixed conditions are forecast for western Tibet including exceptional surpluses. In northwestern China, deficits along with transitional conditions (pink/purple) are expected in western Inner Mongolia, and large pockets of deficit will lead into Xinjiang Uygur and through the Taklimakan Desert. Surpluses are forecast in northern Xinjiang near the region’s capital, Urumqi.

In Mongolia, moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast in the south-central region and in northern Khovd Province in the nation’s northwest. Surpluses are forecast from Lake Uvs in the northwest to the Ider River region. Nearly normal conditions are forecast for the Korean Peninsula and much of Japan with some moderate surpluses in southern Hokkaido.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month time series maps below show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through August indicates that, while surpluses will shrink and downgrade, anomalies will remain widespread. Moderate to exceptional surpluses are forecast in Northeast China but moderate deficits will emerge in a pocket on the Bohai Sea in southern Liaoning. In the Yellow River Watershed, surpluses will be moderate in the lower reaches and along the path of the Ordos Loop, exceptional in pockets from Gansu to Shanxi, and severe in eastern Qinghai. Surpluses will be moderate in the Han River Watershed, a northern tributary of the Yangtze, and in the Yuan River Watershed to the south. Deficits in Southeast China will shrink and downgrade considerably, lingering in Guangdong, but exceptional deficits will increase in western Yunnan and eastern Tibet. Mixed conditions will persist in western Tibet. Deficits will emerge in the eastern Taklimakan Desert in Xinjiang. Conditions in Korea, Japan, and much of Mongolia will normalize.

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From September through November, surpluses in Northeast China will continue to shrink but will remain exceptional in the central Songhua River Watershed, and deficits near the Bohai Sea will shrink. Surpluses in the Yellow River Basin will shrink considerably, persisting in eastern Qinghai north of the upper reaches and between the Yellow and the Han River. Conditions are expected to be normal in much of the Yangtze Watershed. Deficits in Yunnan and nearby regions will nearly disappear. A few pockets of moderate surplus will emerge in Taiwan. Mixed anomalies will persist in western Tibet and Xinjiang. Korea, Japan, and Mongolia can expect nearly normal conditions.

The forecast for the final three months – December 2021 through February 2022 – indicates the emergence of moderate deficits south of the Yangtze River and in southern Japan. Deficits will increase in northwest China. Surpluses will persist in Northeast China, between the Han and Yellow Rivers, and in eastern Qinghai.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Incessant rainfall in Northeast China has caused several rivers to breach their banks, flooding parts of Heilongjiang Province. Over 1,000 emergency personnel were deployed in Tahe County to assist with evacuations and flood control. Flooding has destroyed several highway bridges, inundated residential areas, and disrupted traffic.

Due to drought in southwestern China’s Yunnan Province, tin smelters are facing power shortages that have forced production shutdowns as hydropower generation is curtailed. Experts estimate production losses of 1,000 to 2,000 tonnes.

Guangdong Province, China’s most important manufacturing region, is also facing production losses caused in part by dry conditions that have reduced hydropower. At least one municipality has instituted mandatory power cuts, threatening metal parts supplies to the auto industry. From January through April, the province received just 40 percent of the precipitation recorded last year during the same period. Complicating matters, Guangdong receives a third of its power from other provinces, including Yunnan which is currently suffering drought. Adding to concerns, Guangdong’s Taishan nuclear power plant reportedly has a radioactive leak.

China is cracking down on crypto mining over concerns about power consumption and speculative risk. Power companies have been ordered to stop supplying electricity to crypto mining operations by 27 June. Sichuan Province, which generates large amounts of electricity from hydropower plants, has been at the forefront of crypto production.

Drought conditions in Taiwan are easing as recent rainfall begins to refill depleted reservoirs. Officials will suspend water cuts in several areas - Chiayi, Tainan, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Miaoli - though lower pressure will be maintained until further notice.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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