Africa: Water deficits will emerge in Zambia

28 June 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through February 2022 indicates exceptional water deficits across North Africa along with some transitional areas (pink/purple). A few pockets of surplus are expected in the Sahel including central Mali, Chad, and southern Sudan. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in Mali’s Lake Débo on the Niger River. A pocket of exceptional surplus is also forecast in Egypt south of Cairo. In Nigeria, surpluses of lesser intensity are expected in the major metropolitan areas of Lagos and Ibadan in the south and Kano in the north.

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In the Horn of Africa, deficits are forecast in Eritrea, Djibouti, south-central Ethiopia, Somaliland, and southeastern Somalia, but the Nugaal and Mudug regions in northern Somalia will see exceptional surpluses.

In West Africa, deficits are forecast from southern Senegal into Guinea and in northern Benin and nearby regions. Around the Gulf of Guinea, deficits reaching exceptional intensity are expected from southeastern Nigeria through Gabon. In the heart of the continent, Central African Republic’s western corner will see surplus conditions but moderate to extreme deficits will prevail in the east and through the northern half of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Moderate deficits are forecast near the southern half of Lake Tanganyika and spanning DRC’s border with Angola. Angola can expect deficits, primarily in its northern half, moderate overall but more intense near the northern border.

In East Africa, severe surpluses are forecast in Tanzania, moderate surpluses in central Malawi, and exceptional deficits in coastal Kenya. In southern Africa, widespread surpluses are forecast from eastern Namibia through Botswana reaching into South Africa and east through Zimbabwe’s southern border. Exceptional deficits are forecast for southwestern Namibia and moderate deficits in South Africa’s northeastern provinces. Surpluses are forecast on the coast east of Cape Town and near the Gariep Dam on the Orange River.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through August indicates moderate to exceptional deficits in North Africa with exceptional deficits downgrading in northeast Egypt while emerging in the east and south, reaching into northern Sudan. Conditions across the Sahel and West Africa will normalize with some lingering surpluses. Deficits in the Horn will shrink, and exceptional surpluses will persist in northern Somalia. On the Gulf of Guinea, intense deficits are expected in Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea, moderating through Gabon. Deficits will remain widespread in DRC’s northern half, but exceptional anomalies will shrink as will surpluses further south. Deficits are forecast in Uganda and eastern Central African Republic; surpluses on CAR’s western border will shrink. Surpluses will persist in Tanzania and in Mozambique’s coastal corners. Intense deficits will persist in northern Angola and pockets will emerge in the east and across Zambia’s western lobe. Exceptional deficits will retreat from southwest Namibia and surpluses will belt the nation. Surpluses and transitions are expected in Botswana. South Africa will see normal conditions overall with some pockets of surplus, and moderate deficits near Swaziland. Lesotho can expect deficits.

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From September through November, deficits in North Africa will shrink and downgrade while deficits elsewhere on the continent disappear or become mild. Surpluses will increase in southwest Nigeria; persist in northern Somalia, Malawi, and Mozambique’s corners; and downgrade in Tanzania. Widespread surpluses are forecast in central Namibia and Botswana along with transitional conditions.

The forecast for the final quarter – December 2021 through February 2022 – indicates pockets of deficit in southeast Libya, southwest Egypt, northern Sudan, and West Africa. Areas with a forecast of surplus include southwest Nigeria, Uganda, northern Somalia, and southwest Botswana.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Algeria’s cereal production is likely to plummet by 35 to 40 percent compared to last year due to drought. As a consequence, the nation will continue to spend at least $1.3 billion on grain imports to meet the needs of its 45 million people.

In Kenya’s North Rift region, dry conditions threaten milk production, portending higher prices for consumers. Insufficient rainfall has reduced field fodder on which herders in the region are dependent without access to other sources of feed. North Rift counties provide Kenya with 60 percent of its milk.

Extreme weather conditions, both droughts and floods, are contributing to what Kenya’s federal government recognizes as a mental health crisis. Flooding in 2019 and 2020 and now drought in 2021 are cited as contributing to Kenyan’s post-traumatic stress.

Two major hydroelectric dams in southeast Côte d'Ivoire were nearly dry at the beginning of June, curtailing hydropower. Though 75 percent of the nation’s electricity is generated from thermal production, hydropower has become increasingly important since a breakdown in April at a thermal plant caused power cuts. Rationing continues to both households and commercial enterprises, creating operating losses of 50 percent according to the leader of a consumers’ group.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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