Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surplus will shrink in SE Asia, persist elsewhere

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surplus will shrink in SE Asia, persist elsewhere

23 July 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through March 2022 indicates intense water surpluses in the Lesser Sunda Islands, particularly Timor.

Sulawesi’s northern arm will see moderate to extreme surpluses. Other areas with a forecast of surplus include eastern Java; Banda Aceh in Sumatra’s northern tip; northeastern Borneo; the Maluku Islands; the Bird’s Head Peninsula (Doberai Peninsula) in Papua, Indonesia, and southern regions of the province; and the central Highlands of Papua New Guinea. Deficits are forecast around the metropolis of Medan in Sumatra and in Papua New Guinea’s island of New Britain.

Much of the central and southern Philippines can expect surpluses ranging from moderate to extreme.

In Southeast Asia, moderate to extreme surpluses are forecast in western Myanmar, surpluses of varying intensity in pockets in the center of the nation, and some exceptional surpluses in the Lower Irrawaddy region. Moderate surpluses will be widespread in Vietnam’s Central Highlands leading into Cambodia, and surpluses are also forecast in Cambodia’s northwest corner and in northeastern Laos reaching across the border into northern Vietnam.  

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through September indicates that surpluses will shrink considerably in Southeast Asia, and generally downgrade but remain widespread elsewhere. In Southeast Asia, surpluses will linger in western Myanmar, mixed conditions are forecast for the center of the country, and pockets of deficit will emerge in the peninsula. Deficits will also emerge in western and Peninsular Thailand and intense deficits in pockets of western Cambodia. Surpluses will persist northwest of Tonlé Sap in Cambodia reaching into Thailand, and in eastern Cambodia crossing the border into Vietnam. Surpluses will also persist in pockets of the central and southern Philippines.

Extreme to exceptional surpluses will persist in the Lesser Sunda Islands along with transitional conditions (pink/purple). Surpluses of lesser intensity will be widespread in Sumatra, and deficits around Medan in northern Sumatra will moderate. Surpluses, generally moderate, are also forecast for pockets of Borneo, Sulawesi’s northern arm, the Maluku Islands, southern Papua, and the central Highlands in Papua New Guinea. Severe deficits will persist along the western shore of the Gulf of Papua.

From October through December, much of Southeast Asia can expect relatively normal water conditions, but moderate surpluses are forecast in the Central Highlands of Vietnam. Moderate surpluses will linger in the central Philippines. Normal conditions will return to Sumatra and much of Borneo, but surpluses are expected in Timor and the Lesser Sunda Islands, Sulawesi, the Malukus, New Guinea’s Bird’s Head Peninsula and other pockets on the island. Deficits will retreat from the Gulf of Papua but increase in eastern New Britain.

The forecast for the final months – January through March 2022 – indicates the emergence of widespread, exceptional deficits in Myanmar and moderate deficits in pockets of northwestern Thailand, northern Laos, northern Vietnam, and western Borneo. Moderate surpluses are forecast in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the central Philippines, the Lesser Sundas, Sulawesi’s northern arm, and pockets in New Guinea.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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