ISciences Worldwide Water Watch List August 2021

ISCIENCES WORLDWIDE WATER WATCH LIST AUGUST 2021

13 August 2021

This map presents a selection of regions likely to encounter significant water anomalies during the one year period beginning in May 2021 and running through April 2022 using 3 months of observed temperature and precipitation data and 9 months of forecast data.

The synopsis that follows provides highlights of regional water forecasts. Regional details are available in ISciences Global Water Monitor & Forecast Watch List August 13, 2021 (pdf).

United States: The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will shrink but remain widespread in Northern California, the Pacific Northwest, Rockies, and Northern Plains. Surpluses will persist in Gulf Coast States and emerge in the Northeast and pockets from Virginia through Florida.

Canada: The forecast through October indicates widespread water deficits throughout the provinces though deficits will shrink in the southern regions of the Prairie Provinces. Deficits will be extreme near Edmonton and severe in Winnipeg, Montreal, and Québec City.

Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will increase in the Yaqui River Watershed of Sonora, Mexico and in Durango and Zacatecas, but shrink in Central America. Deficits in southern Veracruz will intensify.

South America: The forecast through October indicates widespread water deficits in Brazil south of the Amazon and in Chile. Deficits are forecast for many other regions, including exceptional deficits on the Paraguay River. Surpluses will increase in the northern Amazon Basin.

Europe: The forecast through October indicates areas of intense water deficit in Norway and Sweden and deficits in the Baltics, southern France, northern Italy, and the western Balkans. Areas of surplus include Belgium, western Czech Republic, and the eastern region of the Balkans.

Africa: The forecast through October indicates water deficits across northern Africa. Exceptional deficits will persist in central Cameroon and western Angola and will emerge in central Zambia and near Lake Kariba. Surpluses will shrink in the Sahel and in the Kalahari Basin, but remain widespread in Tanzania.

Middle East: The forecast through October indicates that water deficits will downgrade but remain widespread in Turkey, the Levant, Iraq, and northern Saudi Arabia. Exceptional deficits are expected in Kuwait, southernmost Iraq, and Riyadh Province, Saudi Arabia.

Central Asia and Russia: The forecast through October indicates that exceptional water deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and southwestern Kazakhstan will retreat. Deficits will shrink in the Volga River Basin but increase in central Siberia. Widespread surpluses are forecast for the Yenisei Watershed.

South Asia: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will shrink and downgrade. Areas of surplus include India’s Krishna River Basin, West Bengal, Bangladesh, Nepal, and northern Pakistan. Intense deficits are forecast in Baluchistan Province, Pakistan.

Southeast Asia and the Pacific: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will shrink considerably in Southeast Asia and the Philippines, and downgrade but remain widespread elsewhere. Deficits are forecast in eastern Thailand between the Mun and Chi Rivers.

East Asia: The forecast through October indicates that water surpluses will shrink considerably overall, but persist in Northeast China, the North China Plain, and the lower Yellow and Yangtze Basins. Deficits in Southeast China will nearly disappear. Intense deficits will persist in Hokkaido.

Australia & New Zealand: The forecast through October indicates water surpluses in the Macintyre River region of northeastern New South Wales and the Avon River catchment southeast of Perth. Deficits will shrink in New Zealand and intensify in western Tasmania.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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