Canada: Water deficits in Prairie Provinces will downgrade

18 August 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through April 2022 indicates widespread water deficits including vast areas of exceptional deficit throughout the provinces.

In the eastern half of the nation, deficits will be exceptional in southern Newfoundland, New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec including the Manicouagan Reservoir region and reaching into western Labrador, near Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and spanning the northern Quebec/Ontario border. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Southern Ontario, and deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District though surpluses are forecast on Hudson Bay. In the major metropolitan regions of the east, deficits will be severe in Ottawa and Montreal, moderate in Québec City, and mild in Toronto.

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Exceptional deficits are expected across the breadth of southern Manitoba through Winnipeg; in a belt across the center of the province north of Lake Winnipeg; and on Hudson Bay. Extreme surpluses are forecast in the northwest, moderating as they reach into Saskatchewan.

While Saskatchewan’s northwest will be dominated by intense surpluses leading well past Lake Athabasca into the Northwest Territories, much of the remainder of the province will experience exceptional deficits including Regina. Deficit anomalies of varying intensity are forecast in southern Alberta, and exceptional deficits between Edmonton and the city of Peace River and in the province’s northwest corner leading into British Columbia.

British Columbia’s Vancouver Island will see deficits as will mainland areas near the U.S. border. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the province’s southern Cariboo region, but intense deficits are forecast farther north in the Fraser River Watershed near Prince George. Deficits will also be intense near British Columbia’s northern border, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through October indicates widespread deficits throughout the provinces but the extent of exceptional deficit will shrink, particularly in the southern regions of the Prairie Provinces. In the east, exceptional deficits will persist primarily in southern Newfoundland, eastern Quebec into Labrador, around Lake Mistassini, and in a column along Ontario’s eastern border. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast from Toronto through Ottawa, Montreal, and Québec City. Widespread deficits will persist in Kenora District, Ontario though exceptional deficits will shrink, as will surpluses near Hudson Bay. The forecast for the Prairie Provinces’ northern halves will be much like observed conditions in the prior three months though intense deficits will shrink. Near-normal conditions will return to southern Saskatchewan while deficits in southern Manitoba and Alberta shrink and downgrade. Deficits will persist in British Columbia’s southern extreme, the far north, and the Fraser River Watershed near Prince George, though exceptional deficits will shrink. Surpluses will persist in the Chilcotin River region of west Cariboo.

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From November 2021 through January 2022, deficits will shrink and downgrade. Moderate deficits are forecast for New Brunswick and southern Newfoundland, but large areas of intense deficit will persist around the Manicouagan Reservoir, from Lake Mistassini to the Gouin Reservoir, and the southern shore of James Bay. Deficits will moderate in Kenora, Ontario. The Prairie Provinces can expect near-normal conditions in the south. In British Columbia, deficits in the south will retreat, persisting in the East Kootenay region. Surpluses are forecast in western Cariboo and near Kelowna.

The forecast for the final months – February through April 2022 – indicates a forecast much like that of the prior period though surpluses will increase in southern British Columbia and deficits will in the eastern provinces will shrink somewhat.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Drought in Manitoba prompted the earliest summer cattle auction one auction house has ever seen, as ranchers facing dry pastures and lack of feed resort to sell-offs. Precipitation in the province’s Interlake region about 100 miles north of Manitoba has been 40 percent below average for the last several months forcing some farmers to tap into feed reserves much earlier.

Lentil farmers in southern Saskatchewan are anticipating crop losses of up to 75 percent due to drought. Year-to-date, the region has received a mere 26 percent of its normal precipitation.

Farmers and ranchers in northwestern Ontario are suffering as well, where July precipitation barely surpassed half the monthly average and 111 wildfires continue to blaze as of mid-August. The provincial government will commit $5 million (USD $4 million) in relief funding for livestock farmers in addition to $2 million (USD $1.6 million) previously allocated for feed, water, and fencing.

The federal government has ear-marked $100 million (USD $79 million) in relief for cattle ranchers in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario whose operations have been affected by drought and wildfires.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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