Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Central Asia will shrink

Central Asia & Russia: Water deficits in Central Asia will shrink

21 September 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through May 2022 indicates widespread exceptional water deficits throughout Uzbekistan, western Kazakhstan, and much of Turkmenistan.

Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan along with transitional conditions (pink/purple). Surpluses are forecast north of Lake Balkhash and southeast of the lake reaching exceptional intensity while moderate deficits are expected between the lake’s western end and Almaty. Central Tajikistan can expect intense surpluses with some deficits elsewhere. Surpluses are also forecast for much of Kyrgyzstan’s eastern half.

In Russia, intense deficits are expected in the southern Ural Mountains reaching east past Tyumen, south through the Ural River Watershed, and west well into TransVolga and the Middle Volga region. Exceptional surpluses are forecast along much of the Yenisei River with surpluses of varying intensity in the river’s vast watershed reaching to Lake Baikal.

In the Central Siberian Plateau, exceptional deficits are expected in the middle reaches of the Vilyuy River, a tributary of the Lena River, including the area surrounding the Vilyuy Reservoir, and spanning the southern edge of the plateau and the region north of Lake Baikal. Exceptional surpluses are forecast in the plateau’s northeast between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates that widespread, intense deficits in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Kazakhstan will retreat leaving some pockets of moderate deficit in eastern Turkmenistan and southern Uzbekistan. Surpluses and transitional conditions will persist in the Ishim River Watershed of northern Kazakhstan and surpluses will persist around Lake Balkhash. Surpluses are also forecast along the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan and in the nation’s east and south, leading into central Tajikistan.

In Russia, deficits in the Volga River Basin will shrink and moderate overall. Deficits will be intense in the Pechora and Mezen River watersheds in the north with intense surpluses between in the Vychedga Lowlands. Surpluses will downgrade somewhat in the Yenisei River Watershed but remain widespread. In the Central Siberian Plateau, deficits will increase though the extent of exceptional anomalies will shrink, particularly around the Vilyuy Reservoir. Exceptional surpluses will persist between the Olenyok and Markha Rivers. Deficits will shrink in the northern Verhoyansk Range of Sakha Republic but intense surpluses will persist in the southern region of the range and spanning the Lower Alden River, a tributary of the Lena. Widespread surpluses will persist in Russian regions bordering Northeast China. Near the Sea of Okhotsk, intense deficits will persist.

From December 2021 through February 2022, some pockets of surplus will re-emerge in southern Turkmenistan and the Kyzylkum Desert region in Uzbekistan. Surpluses will persist on the Naryn River and in eastern Kyrgyzstan but transitions are forecast there and in Tajikistan as well. The Ishim River Watershed in Kazakhstan will also be in transition, and surpluses north of Lake Balkhash will shrink.

In Russia, deficits in the Mezen and Pechora Watersheds will nearly disappear as will surpluses in the Vychedga Lowlands. Deficits will persist in the southern Urals and to the east past Tyumen. Surpluses will persist in the Yenisei Watershed; deficits will remain widespread in much of the Central Siberian Plateau; and surpluses along with transitional conditions are forecast between the Olenek and Markha Rivers. Surpluses will persist in Russian regions bordering Northeast China. Intense deficits are expected to persist from the city of Yakutsk to the Sea of Okhotsk.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2022 – indicates that moderate surpluses will increase from the Ob River to the Yenisei and will emerge in the Vychedga Lowlands, increasing in the tundra region along the coast to the north. Deficits will shrink from the southern Urals to Tyumen. Elsewhere, anomalies remain much the same as in the forecast for the prior three months.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
In response to ongoing drought, the Kazakh government instituted a six-month ban beginning in mid-August on rye exports and also limited the export of barley and of wheat used for animal feed. As of early September, export duties on grain were also under consideration as the nation’s grain production could decline by nearly a quarter. In July, Kazakh President Tokayev fired the nation’s agriculture minister, citing failure to adequately address drought impacts. The United States has extended $100,000 in humanitarian assistance to Kazakhstan for drought relief.

Dry weather in Russia has prompted industry analysts to reduce that nation’s estimated wheat production for the year. This year’s crop is expected to total 74 to 75 million metric tons, compared to last year’s 85.9 million, a decline of nearly 14 percent.

Wildfires have burned through 173,000 square kilometers (67,000 square miles) in Russia this year, the second-worst record in the last 20 years. Coming on the heels of massive fires in Siberia earlier in the summer, a heatwave helped propel 15 fires in the Urals during August including one that forced closure of a major highway between Yekaterinburg and Perm. In Nizhny Novgorod east of Moscow, a wildfire required the deployment of nine planes, 129 tons of water, and 1,200 firefighters in an effort at containment. In Yakutia - a huge republic (Sakha) that reaches into the Arctic - an area the size of Portugal was consumed.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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