Canada: Water deficits will shrink in the Prairie Provinces

22 September 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month outlook for Canada through May 2022 indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity throughout the provinces including vast areas of exceptional deficit.

In the eastern half of the nation, deficits will be exceptional in southern Newfoundland, eastern New Brunswick, northeastern Quebec including the Manicouagan Reservoir region and reaching into western Labrador, from Gouin Reservoir to Lake Mistassini in Quebec, and on Quebec’s northeastern border reaching along James Bay. Deficits of varying intensity are expected in Southern Ontario and deficits will be widespread in Northern Ontario’s Kenora District though surpluses are forecast on Hudson Bay. In the major metropolitan regions of the east, deficits will be extreme to exceptional near Montreal and moderate near Toronto and Ottawa. Conditions will be nearly normal near Québec City.

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In the Prairie Provinces, deficits of varying intensity are forecast across the southern halves, including exceptional deficits around Winnipeg (Manitoba) and Regina (Saskatchewan), and extreme deficits near Calgary and Edmonton (Alberta). In the provinces’ northern reaches, surpluses will dominate from Fort McMurray in Alberta through Saskatchewan’s northwest quadrant and in northwestern Manitoba. However, deficits will frame these surpluses with widespread, exceptional anomalies in Manitoba near Hudson Bay and in Alberta’s northwestern corner and the Middle Athabasca River region.

British Columbia’s Vancouver Island can expect exceptional deficits while deficits of varying intensity are forecast near the province’s southern border. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in the southern Cariboo Region, but intense deficits are forecast farther north in the Fraser River Watershed near Prince George. Deficits will also be intense near British Columbia’s northern border, expanding as they reach well into the Yukon and the Northwest Territories.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through November indicates that deficits will shrink in the western half of the nation, returning near-normalcy to the southern region of the Prairie Provinces. Though exceptional deficits will shrink in Canada’s eastern half, widespread intense anomalies will persist in Quebec and along Ontario’s northeastern border and James Bay. Anomalies in Northern Ontario will downgrade.

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In Manitoba, moderate to extreme deficits will persist in the southeast. Exceptional deficits will persist in a belt across the middle of the province and in the northeast near Hudson Bay; moderate surpluses are forecast in the northwest. Conditions across southern Saskatchewan will be normal with moderate deficits on the South Saskatchewan River. Deficits of varying intensity are forecast in the province’s middle and intense surpluses in the northwest. While southeastern Alberta will see relatively normal conditions, some deficits are expected. Farther north, intense deficits will persist in the Middle Athabasca River region and in the northwestern, and surpluses near Lake Athabasca. Deficits will persist in British Columbia’s southern extreme, the Fraser River Watershed near Prince George, and the far north, though exceptional deficits will shrink. Surpluses will persist in the Chilcotin River region of west Cariboo and near Kelowna in the province’s south and will increase in the far northwest.

From December 2021 through February 2022, deficits will shrink and downgrade though vast expanses of exceptional deficit will persist in Quebec, near James Bay in Ontario, and central and northeastern Manitoba. Relatively normal water conditions are forecast for the Prairie Province’s southern regions and deficits will recede from much of southern British Columbia, persisting in the East Kootenay region, as more pockets of surplus emerge.

The forecast for the final months – March through May 2022 – indicates that deficits will shrink, particularly in Quebec. Moderate surpluses will increase in British Columbia, especially in the Cariboo Region. Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Unusually high livestock sell-offs continued throughout the summer months as ranchers in the Prairie Provinces dealt with pasture-killing drought. Industry analysts say that as much as 30 percent of the breeding stock in Western Canada could be culled compared to 10 to 12 percent in a normal year.

Canada’s wheat crop is likely to hit a 14-year low due to drought and canola production will drop lower than it has in nine years.

Restaurants in the Prairie Provinces are facing higher prices for meat and vegetables as the drought wears on, but experts say impacts will be felt in the consumer market as well through fall and winter. Household grocery costs could end up being about $700 more this year.

Outside the Prairies, August brought an increase in exceptional drought conditions to British Columbia’s Okanagan region and into the Shuswap and southern Kootenay-Boundary. B.C.’s agricultural areas have been especially hard-hit, with 91 percent experiencing some level of unusual dryness. Water restrictions were initiated in the Thompson-Okanagan region.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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