South Asia: Water surpluses will persist in India

South Asia: Water surpluses will persist in India

25 October 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through June 2022 indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in several regions of India. In the west, surpluses will be severe in western Gujarat and will reach exceptional intensity from Mumbai into Karnataka. Widespread moderate to severe surpluses are forecast from central Maharashtra past Hyderabad in Telangana. A path of moderate anomalies will lead from eastern Andhra Pradesh on the Bay of Bengal reaching southeast through Tamil Nadu to Kerala’s coast on the Arabian Sea.

Widespread surpluses are expected from West Bengal through Jharkhand and Bihar into the region of Uttar Pradesh north of the Ghaghara River. Anomalies will be exceptional in the Ganges Delta and Kolkata, and on the Gandaki River in Bihar. Severe to extreme surpluses are expected in the Chambal River Watershed in Rajasthan, and anomalies will be even more intense in Haryana and the far north.

In India’s Far Northeast, deficits of varying intensity are forecast including exceptional deficits in Assam. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are also expected in pockets of the Far Northeast. Elsewhere in India, deficits are forecast in a pocket around Jodhpur in Rajasthan and small pockets in northern Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.

Severe to extreme surpluses will be widespread throughout Bangladesh, exceptional in some areas including the delta. Extreme to exceptional surpluses will dominate much of Nepal and reach into western Bhutan. In Sri Lanka, surpluses are expected in the nation’s southwest corner. Many regions of Pakistan will experience surpluses including exceptional anomalies west of the Jhelum and Indus Rivers and south of Hyderabad. In Afghanistan, deficits will be severe in the provinces surrounding Mazar-e Sharif in the north; mixed conditions are forecast in the west; and surpluses in the far south.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month composites (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through December indicates that surpluses will increase in India with moderate to severe anomalies emerging in greater extent south of Bangalore and in the Eastern Ghats. Surpluses will persist in many regions, becoming extreme in Gujarat and severe from Maharashtra into Telangana. Persistent surpluses on the west coast from Mumbai into Karnataka will downgrade on the western portion of the Krishna River and retreat from the Tungabhadra River Watershed. Surpluses will increase in the Upper Chambal River Watershed, joining a path of surplus leading north into Haryana, while surpluses in the far north shrink slightly. In the Ganges Plain, surpluses will persist north of the Ghaghara River in Uttar Pradesh though West Bengal, shrinking somewhat in southern Bihar. Deficits will retreat from Odisha, but some small pockets of deficit are forecast in eastern Madhya Pradesh and western Rajasthan. In the Far Northeast, deficits will shrink as transitions occur, but intense anomalies are expected in Assam.

In Sri Lanka, surpluses will retreat to the southwest corner and downgrade. Surpluses will also downgrade in Bangladesh though remain widespread, and will be intense throughout much of Nepal and into Bhutan. Pakistan’s northern third will continue to see surpluses of varying intensity; moderate deficits will emerge in the southeast; and transitional conditions are forecast for much of the remainder of the country. In Afghanistan, deficits in the north will downgrade, moderate deficits and transitional conditions are forecast west of Kabul, and surpluses will re-emerge in the nation’s west

From January through March 2022, the distribution of surpluses will remain much the same as in the prior three month’s forecast for India, Bangladesh, and Nepal though anomalies in far north India will shrink and transitional conditions are expected from Gujarat through coastal Maharashtra. Deficits will persist in Assam. In Pakistan, surpluses will shrink in the north and re-emerge in the Indus River Watershed in the center of the country. Deficits in the southwest will become mild and the southeast will begin to transition out of surplus. Anomalies in Afghanistan will generally retreat.

The forecast for the final months – April through June 2022 – indicates that surpluses will retreat from much of Bangladesh and West Bengal, shrink and downgrade from Nepal into India, re-emerge in western Gujarat, and persist in many other areas of India. Severe deficits are forecast in the Far Northeast. Surpluses will persist in central and northern Pakistan, and conditions in Afghanistan will be nearly normal.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
India’s 2021 monsoon season has extended beyond its projected withdrawal of early October, lashing the subcontinent with heavy rainfall that produced flooding and landslides.

In Uttarakhand in northern India, 46 people have lost their lives, while 40 deaths have been reported in the southern state of Kerala where overflowing dams were opened for the first time since 2018 when flooding claimed 400 lives. Military personnel have been deployed in rescue and evacuation efforts. Though precipitation has subsided in Maharashtra, fields remain submerged, threatening to delay sowing of the winter crop planted for spring harvesting. The financial loss has also delayed marriages in Maharashtra, as dowry funds become depleted.

In Nepal, 50 people have died in flooding and landslides and many homes have been destroyed, roadways blocked, and flights canceled at a regional airport.

Drought in southwestern Pakistan’s Balochistan Province has created a drinking water shortage and left croplands barren.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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