Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surplus to persist in SE Asia

Southeast Asia & the Pacific: Water surplus to persist in SE Asia

17 December 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2022 indicates water surpluses of varying intensity in many regions of Southeast Asia and anomalies will be especially widespread and intense in Vietnam, Cambodia, and southern Laos.

Surpluses will be extreme to exceptional in the Lower Mekong Basin. Widespread surpluses are expected in Vietnam, generally moderate in the north, exceptional in the narrows, and extreme to exceptional from the Highlands to the coast. Surpluses of varying intensity are expected in much of central and southern Thailand and central and southern Myanmar, extreme in southwestern Myanmar.

Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in the central and southern Philippines, and surpluses of varying intensity in Indonesian Borneo and northern Malaysian Borneo. Sulawesi’s northern arm will see extreme to exceptional surplus anomalies as will Flores Island. Surpluses of generally lesser intensity are expected in pockets elsewhere in the Lesser Sunda Islands; in Sumatra at its northern tip in Banda Aceh and along its central east coast; throughout the Maluku Islands; many regions of Papua, Indonesia; and the Southern Highlands and Bird’s Tail (Papuan) Peninsula of Papua New Guinea.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through February 2022 indicates that surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Indonesia and Pacific regions but remain widespread and intense in much of Southeast Asia. Anomalies will be extreme to exceptional in the Lower Mekong River Basin and the coastal provinces of Cambodia. In Vietnam, surpluses will intensify in the north becoming severe overall, while exceptional anomalies shrink in the narrows and surpluses from the Central Highlands to the coast downgrade slightly, becoming severe. Widespread surpluses of varying intensity are forecast in Thailand, Laos, and eastern Myanmar. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) are forecast for central Myanmar, but extreme surpluses will continue in the west. Moderate surpluses are expected in the central and southern Philippines, pockets of Peninsular and far northern Malaysian Borneo, and pockets of East Kalimantan and coastal West Kalimantan in Indonesian Borneo. Severe to extreme surpluses are forecast for Sulawesi’s northern arm and Flores Island, but surpluses will be moderate in the Maluku Islands and pockets along Sumatra’s southwestern coast, in eastern Java, the Lesser Sundas, Indonesian Papua, and the Papuan Peninsula.

From March through May 2022, surpluses will shrink and downgrade in Southeast Asia but are forecast for many regions including throughout Vietnam and Cambodia. Anomalies will be severe to extreme overall in the Lower Mekong region of Cambodia into Vietnam. Moderate to severe surpluses are forecast in central Thailand, many regions of Laos, and eastern Myanmar. Surpluses will remain somewhat more intense in western Myanmar. Surpluses will shrink in Mindanao, Philippines, and persist in the central islands. Surpluses will shrink considerably in Indonesia and the Pacific, persisting in northern Sulawesi and small pockets in the Lesser Sundas, Malukus, and New Guinea.

The forecast for the final months – June through August 2022 – indicates the emergence of moderate surpluses throughout New Guinea and persistant surpluses in small pockets of the Lesser Sundas and Malukus, and along Vietnam’s easternmost coast.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Heavy rainfall in early December flooded the Indonesian capital of Jakarta submerging homes and businesses. Some 300 families evacuated from flooded homes in North Jakarta will be relocated with assistance from the provincial government. Nearly 40 percent of Jakarta is below sea level and parts of the city sink 7.9 inches (20 centimeters) every year. Indonesia plans to move its capital to North Kalimantan on Borneo by 2024.

Elephants came to the rescue after flash flooding in southern Thailand’s Phatthalung Province left boulders blocking a major waterway near Pak Rang Waterfall. For several days the pachyderms helped clear the stream that is the water source for local agriculture and household use. The deluge affected nine provinces in the south with over 44,000 households. Military personnel were deployed in Surat Thai Province to move residents to higher ground. Roads in the region were submerged and a bridge damaged.

At least 18 people are missing after heavy rainfall in central Vietnam triggered flooding and landslides that damaged homes and left many roadways impassable.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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Many analyses reported in ISciences-authored blog posts are based on data generated by the ISciences Water Security Indicator Model (WSIM). Other sources, if used, are referenced in footnotes accompanying individual posts. WSIM is a validated capability that produces monthly reports on current and forecast global freshwater surpluses and deficits with lead times of 1-9 months at 0.25°x0.25° resolution. This capability has been in continuous operation since April 2011 and has proven to provide reliable forecasts of emerging water security concerns in that time-frame. WSIM has the ability to assess the impacts of water anomalies on people, agriculture, and electricity generation. Detailed data, customized visualizations, and reports are available for purchase.

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