Africa: Intense water deficits to persist in SE Ethiopia

21 December 2021

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through August 2022 indicates widespread water deficits across northern Africa including many areas of exceptional deficit.

Surpluses are forecast in large pockets of the Sahel and will be exceptional around Lake Débo in the Inner Niger Delta of central Mali and Kano State in northern Nigeria, and extreme in southeastern Niger’s Zinder region. Southeastern Sudan can also expect surpluses, particularly intense between the White Nile and the Atbara Rivers and reaching into Eritrea and the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia.

In West Africa, deficits are forecast in Guinea Bissau and in south-central Mali’s Ségou and Bamako Regions as well as northern Mali. Scattered pockets of moderate surplus are expected in nations along the northern Gulf of Guinea.

Surpluses are forecast in northern Nigeria, as previously mentioned, and in the southwest. Severe to exceptional deficits are predicted for the nation’s southeast quadrant reaching through central and southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon. Intense deficits are also expected in Cameroon’s northern tip reaching into Chad.

In the heart of the continent, widespread deficits are forecast in the vast northern region of the Congo River Basin in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Anomalies will be moderate to severe overall but exceptional in the Upper Uele River region.

In the Horn of Africa, intense deficits are forecast in southern Eritrea, Djibouti, Somaliland, and southern Somalia. Transitional conditions (pink/purple) along with exceptional surpluses are forecast for the Nugaal Valley in Somalia.

Some pockets of moderate surplus are expected in Tanzania, but widespread deficits are predicted for neighboring nations to the south including Mozambique, Malawi, and eastern Zambia, with anomalies reaching exceptional intensity on either side of Lake Malawi’s southern half, extending through Niassa Province, Mozambique. In Madagascar, moderate deficits are forecast in the central west.

Elsewhere, pockets of moderate deficit are forecast in northern Angola and surpluses in Western Cape, South Africa and pockets in the Kalahari Desert in Botswana.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through February 2022 indicates that much of northern and southern Africa can expect mild or isolated anomalies while a complicated patchwork is expected from West Africa to the Horn. Extreme to exceptional deficits are forecast in southeastern Nigeria and Cameroon and exceptional deficits in the Horn from southeastern Ethiopia into Somalia. Intense surpluses will dominate from Kano State in northern Nigeria into Niger’s Zinder region, between the White Nile and the Atbara Rivers in Sudan, and surrounding Lake Nasser in Egypt and several pockets in the north. Moderate deficits are expected in northern Morocco, deficits and transitional conditions from west coast nations through Mali, Burkina Faso and northern regions of Ghana, Togo, and Benin into Nigeria. Anomalies will be intense on the west coast and in northern Benin. Surpluses are forecast along the northern Gulf of Guinea, particularly in southern Ghana and southeastern Nigeria, and in northern Chad. Deficits are expected in Gabon, much of the Congo Basin in DRC, Uganda, central Sudan, the Horn, and Madagascar. Other surplus regions include south of Kinshasa (DRC), the Kalahari Desert in Botswana, and Western Cape, South Africa.

The forecast for March through May 2022 indicates that deficits will increase in North Africa becoming severe to exceptional in northern Niger, southeastern Libya, Egypt, and northern Sudan. Surpluses will shrink along the northern Gulf of Guinea, persist in southeastern Sudan, and re-emerge in northern Eritrea and Nugaal, Somalia. Some deficits will persist in central Cameroon and north-central DRC. Surpluses will persist in Western Cape and emerge in Orange Free State and near Dodoma, Tanzania.

In the final quarter – June through August 2022 – moderate to exceptional deficits are forecast in North Africa and surpluses in pockets primarily in Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Nugaal, and Uganda.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Cameroon’s Far North continues to be embroiled in violent disputes between fisherman, farmers, and herders competing for fast-dwindling water resources. The recent conflict in early December left ten villages burned, 22 people dead, and 30 injured. Drought has shrunk Lake Chad and reduced the waters flowing in its tributaries, including the Logone River. At least 10,000 refugees left Cameroon for Chad during the latest incident.

With an estimated 3.5 million Somalis already facing food insecurity, three consecutive seasons of poor rainfall have made the situation even worse. Drought has destroyed crops, killed livestock, reduced pasture, and increased the distance many Somalis must travel for water. The UN Food and Agricultural Organization calculates the need for US $1.8 million to feed 12,500 households in the south and an additional $2.35 million for livestock support.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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