Mexico, Central America, & the Caribbean: Intense water deficits will persist in north-central Mexico

24 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending September indicates widespread water deficits of varying intensity in Mexico’s north-central and northeastern states, in the Baja Peninsula, and across the Gulf of California into northwestern Sonora. Anomalies will be severe to exceptional in Baja, the Colorado River Delta, eastern Chihuahua, Coahuila, and northern Nuevo León.

Deficits are also expected in the northern tip of Veracruz State and in the Yucatán Peninsula.

Surpluses are forecast in southern Durango, southern Zacatecas, and Aquascalientes in Mexico and will reach extreme intensity in Durango. Surpluses are also expected in the northern region of the state of Mexico and in coastal Michoacán.

In Central America, surpluses ranging from moderate to severe will be widespread in Nicaragua and Honduras and are also forecast for northern Costa Rica and pockets of Panama, Guatemala, and Belize. In the Caribbean, surpluses will be intense in Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas. Moderate deficits are forecast in pockets of Dominican Republic and Haiti, and intense deficits in Turks and Caicos Islands.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through March indicates intense deficits in Mexico’s north-central states of Chihuahua, Coahuila, and the northern half of neighboring Durango. Anomalies will be exceptional at the intersection of shared borders. While conditions will normalize in northern Baja, exceptional deficits are expected in the south, and some moderate deficits will emerge in northwestern Sonora. Pockets of exceptional deficit will emerge on the central Pacific Coast in Nayarit and Jalisco as surpluses retreat. Surpluses will persist in a path through the center of the country from southern Durango through Morelos and Tlaxcala though transitional conditions are also expected. Anomalies will be extreme in the State of Mexico’s northern region and exceptional in Tlaxcala. Mixed conditions are forecast in the south between the Gulfs of Mexico and Tehuantepec, and a pocket of exceptional deficit is expected in Campeche in the Yucatan.

In Central America, surpluses will be widespread in Honduras and Nicaragua, reaching into northern Costa Rica and eastern Guatemala. Intense surpluses are forecast for Jamaica, Cuba, and the central Bahamas. Deficits in Hispaniola will shrink considerably.

From April through June, deficits in Mexico will shrink and downgrade considerably. In the north, deficits will persist in Chihuahua but increase in Sonora, primarily west of the Yacqui River where anomalies will be moderate overall but intense along the border in the state’s northeast. In Baja, exceptional deficits will persist in the south and moderate deficits will increase in the north. While much of central and southern Mexico will return to normal water conditions, surpluses will increase somewhat in a path from southern Sinaloa through southern Durango and reaching south nearly to Mexico City. Surpluses will re-emerge along the Pacific in coastal areas of Colima and Michoacán, and will emerge in southern Mexico in the Atoyac River region of Oaxaca and pockets of Chiapas.

Surpluses will shrink in Central America, but pockets will persist, notably northern Honduras and surrounding Lake Nicaragua. Surpluses will also persist in Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas, and near-normal conditions will return to Hispaniola.

The forecast for the final three months – July through September – indicates generally moderate deficits in pockets of Baja and Mexican Gulf States, and northern Central America. Surpluses are forecast in pockets of Durango, Zacatecas, Jalisco, and Panama, and throughout eastern Cuba.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Several weeks into the rainy season, nearly 80 percent of Baja California, Mexico is in drought according to Conagua, the National Water Commission. Ranchers in neighboring Baja California Sur lost 10,000 animals to drought in 2021. The prospect of recurring drought is leading to herd reductions in the state with sales of 5,000 additional calves this year over prior years. Slaughter figures are also up.

The agricultural insurance program of the state government of Jalisco, Mexico will compensate 360 corn and bean producers in the region for crop losses due to drought. The support will offer between 2,000 and 3,000 pesos per hectare for affected crops.

Drinking water will be in short supply in Havana, Cuba, as reservoirs that serve the capital region are less than half full. Water authorities say that 2021 rainfall in Havana was around 78 percent of average.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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