South America: Widespread water surpluses in Brazil

26 January 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast through September indicates widespread deficits in the northern Orinoco River watershed of Venezuela and Colombia with exceptional deficits in the river’s northwestern tributaries. Surpluses are forecast in the Orinoco Delta, Venezuela’s southern tip, and parts of the Guianas.

In Brazil, surpluses of varying intensity will be widespread in the northern and eastern Amazon River Basin though an isolated pocket of intense deficit is expected at the confluence of the Amazon and Juruá Rivers. Mixed conditions are forecast in Mato Grosso; surpluses in Maranhão, Bahia, and Minas Gerais; and severe deficits in Brazil’s southern states. Uruguay can expect moderate deficits.

Ecuador will experience some moderate deficits though Quito will see surpluses. Deficits will cover much of Peru’s northern half, intense in western Loreto and northern Ucayali. Widespread surpluses are forecast across central Bolivia reaching extreme intensity in Cochabamba Department.

Exceptional deficits will blanket Chile from La Serana in the north through most of the nation’s southern extent. Deficits in Chilean Patagonia will cross the border into Argentina, eventually downgrading though remaining exceptional on the Deseado River. Deficits in the Falklands will be extreme. In northeastern Argentina, deficits are forecast from the Iberá Wetlands of Corrientes Province where anomalies will be extreme and will form a broad path of moderate to extreme deficit into much of Buenos Aires Province.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) for the same 12-month period show the evolving conditions in greater detail.

The forecast through March indicates widespread surpluses in the Amazon Basin, particularly in the east, moderate overall but severe to exceptional in Pará, Brazil. Surpluses are also forecast in Maranhão, Bahia, and Minas Gerais. Elsewhere, surpluses are expected in French Guiana, Suriname, the Orinoco Delta, Venezuela’s southern tip, much of Bolivia, and a belt in northern Paraguay. Deficits reaching exceptional intensity are forecast from Bogota, Colombia through western and central Venezuela and several regions in Peru’s northern half. Brazil’s southern states will see moderate to extreme deficits. Deficits will be moderate in Uruguay, and moderate to severe from northeastern Argentina through northern and eastern Buenos Aires. Deficits are expected in Chile’s southern two-thirds, exceptional from Concepcion through the Gulf of Corcovado. Anomalies will cross into Argentina, moderating as they follow southern rivers. Intense deficits are expected in Tierra del Fuego and the Falklands.

From April through June, surpluses are forecast in the eastern Amazon Basin and Minas Gerais, Brazil; the Guianas; Bolivia; and the Patagonian Icefields. Exceptional deficits are forecast in Bolivia’s southern tip and pockets of northeastern Chile; moderate to extreme deficits from northern Patagonian Chile into Argentina and in Tierra del Fuego; and some moderate deficits in the Pampas.

The final quarter – July through September – indicates surpluses in Minas Gerais and Bolivia. Generally moderate deficits are forecast in pockets of the Pampas, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Suriname, and Amapá, Brazil; and some small, exceptional pockets in coastal Venezuela and Ecuador, and from Bolivia’s southern tip into the shared northern border of Chile and Argentina.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
Around 700,000 people were left without power in Argentina as temperatures soared to 43C (113F), straining electricity grids.

The heatwave along with drought are negatively impacting the nation’s agricultural productivity. Forecasters have revised the corn harvest estimate, chopping 13 percent off as of 20 January. Analysts have revised soybean estimates down as well by a similar percentage. Net loss income to grain farmers is estimated to be around USD $2.93 billion and parliament is considering the elimination of export duties in regions with a drought disaster designation.

Fires in Patagonia have destroyed an estimated 80,000 hectares of forest in Argentina. Hundreds of firefighters have been deployed to Chubut, Rio Negro and Neuquen, but dry conditions, high temperatures, and lack of winter snow have created a perfect environment for the blazes to flourish.

Flooding continued into the new year in Brazil’s northeast, affecting several states including Bahia, Minas Gerais, Pará, and Maranhao. Over 50 deaths have been reported as of mid-January.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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