United States: Water deficits in TX & FL

17 February 2022

THE BIG PICTURE
The 12-month forecast ending October indicates widespread water deficits from the southern Rockies through Texas. Deficits will be exceptional from the Oklahoma Panhandle through the Llano Estacado, and in a broad belt along the Rio Grande near Amistad Reservoir. Deficits will reach east into Arkansas and Louisiana and will be especially intense from Shreveport, Louisiana past the Toledo Bend Reservoir on the Sabine River. Some moderate deficits are forecast in the Central Plains States.

Deficits will also be widespread in the Southwest and will include exceptional deficits in east-central New Mexico and in Arizona at the confluence of the Gila and Colorado Rivers. California can expect deficits, intense in Death Valley and moderate in the San Joaquin Valley and the far north. In the Pacific Northwest, moderate deficits are forecast in Oregon and surpluses in western Washington. In Idaho, intense deficits are expected in the Salmon River Mountains, while western Montana can expect moderate deficits. Mixed conditions are forecast in Wyoming, Nevada, and Utah, though deficits will be more common.

The Dakotas can expect widespread, moderate to severe surpluses in the east leading across the border into Minnesota. The Upper Great Lakes Region will experience moderate deficits in northeastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Widespread surpluses are forecast in the southern half of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula and south through Indiana, northwestern Ohio, Kentucky, and central Tennessee. New York’s Finger Lakes region will also see surpluses.

On the East Coast, deficits of varying intensity are forecast from the Delmarva Peninsula through Florida and will be especially widespread and intense in the Carolinas and Peninsular Florida. Southern Alabama can expect deficits as well.

Outside the contiguous U.S., deficits are forecast in northeastern Alaska; areas of surplus include Noatak and Gates of the Arctic National Preserves, Nome, the region west of Bethel, and the eastern reaches of the Alaska Range. Moderate to extreme surpluses are expected in Hawaii and moderate deficits in Puerto Rico.

FORECAST BREAKDOWN
The 3-month maps (below) show the evolving conditions in more detail.

The forecast through April indicates widespread, primarily moderate, surpluses in much of the Ohio River Basin and pockets in Missouri, southeastern Michigan, and western Upstate New York. In the East, deficits are expected in Delaware, northern Virginia, pockets along the southeast coast, and throughout Florida. Deficits will be severe to exceptional in Florida and Virginia. Deficits will skirt the Gulf Coast, becoming widespread in Texas with moderate to exceptional deficits. Deficits will reach into Oklahoma, and deficits are forecast in the Central Plains States. Mixed conditions are expected in the Rocky Mountain States with pockets of deficit in western Montana and central Idaho, and pockets of surplus in southeastern Idaho, southern Wyoming, and western Colorado. A few pockets of surplus are also forecast in Nevada. Deficits are expected in the Southwest, primarily New Mexico, and also in pockets of northern and southeastern California. In the Dakotas, surpluses will persist in the east and into Minnesota, but deficits are forecast in northern Minnesota crossing into Wisconsin. The Upper Peninsula of Michigan can expect some deficits.

From May through July, many regions east of the Mississippi River will return to normal. Moderate deficits are forecast in Florida and southeastern Georgia. In the Upper Midwest, surpluses will persist spanning the border of the Dakotas into Minnesota but will downgrade. Widespread deficits of varying intensity are predicted in the southern Rockies, Texas, and the Southwest. Deficits, moderate overall, are expected in California and pockets of Nevada, Utah, Oregon, central Idaho, and southwestern Montana. A few isolated pockets of surplus will persist in Idaho and Nevada.

The forecast for the final months – August through October – indicates that deficits will shrink considerably in Texas and the Southwest, increase in the Northwest, and emerge along the Arkansas River. In the East, deficits will shrink in Florida, but moderate deficits will emerge from the Carolinas into the Deep South. Surpluses in the Dakotas will moderate.

Please note that WSIM forecast skill declines with longer lead times.

IMPACTS
A powerful nor’easter blasted the East Coast from Maine to North Carolina closing out the first month of the year with over a foot (30 centimeters) of snow, canceling flights and disrupting power to at least 100,000 people.

Within a week, another wintry blast cut a path from the Deep South to Vermont, leaving 87,000 Tennessee homes without power and 56,000 in New York.

Drought in the High Plains has left hay supplies at the lowest in a decade, bumping up the cost of cattle feed for ranchers in Nebraska and Kansas.

A recent study indicates that the drought in the U.S. West and northern Mexico is the worst in over 1,200 years.

Insurance payouts for crop losses due to droughts and floods now total more than triple what they did 25 years ago, according to a report from the Environmental Working Group.

NOTE ON ADMINISTRATIVE BOUNDARIES
There are numerous regions around the world where country borders are contested. ISciences depicts country boundaries on these maps solely to provide some geographic context. The boundaries are nominal, not legal, descriptions of each entity. The use of these boundaries does not imply any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of disputed boundaries on the part of ISciences or our data providers.

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